Worrying signs of complacency in Dublin and London about the future stability and security of the Northern Ireland peace process

They will hotly deny it. Some on their behalf will be extremely irritated by the mere suggestion of it

They will hotly deny it. Some on their behalf will be extremely irritated by the mere suggestion of it. And, indeed, the suggestion itself almost hesitates to take written form. For at this, of all moments, it is surely the ultimate in political incorrectness to think it, let alone say it.

Be that as it may, there are worrying signs of complacency in Dublin and London about the future stability and security of the Northern Ireland peace process.

With all that history made, and more in the making, there is little disposition now to hear the siren voice, or even the whispered word of caution. Understandably enough. For the dramatic events following the historic decision of the Ulster Unionist Council on November 27th have brought Ireland and Britain, at this century's close, to a point few would have believed possible even a few short months before.

John Hume's dream may be close to assuming reality, as we turn our backs on a century he has steadfastly maintained could be the last in which the gun has any part to play in the politics of this island or of these islands.

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Northern Ireland has its first devolved administration in a quarter of a century - and its first fully inclusive, representative government. Unionists, nationalists and republicans share the offices and trappings of political power - albeit with Peter Robinson and Nigel Dodds remaining without the cabinet room in their assumed roles as ministers in opposition.

Bertie Ahern led the entire Irish Cabinet across the border (now legitimised, at least in some unionist eyes, by the withdrawal of the territorial claim) for the inaugural meeting of the North-South Ministerial Council in Armagh to the muted strains of ineffectual, and largely ignored, Paisley-ite protest.

Later the same week people went peacefully and safely about their Christmas shopping as First Minister Trimble and Deputy First Minister Mallon led the Northern Ireland delegation to London for the first session of the British-Irish Council.

If he felt any unease about the Lancaster House location, the Ulster Unionist leader showed no sign of it as he took his place alongside Prime Minister Blair, Taoiseach Ahern, the leaders of the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly, and the representatives of the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.

Mr Trimble might have been over-stating the significance of the demise of the hated Anglo-Irish Agreement. After all, the British-Irish Council was immediately followed by the first session of the new souped-up British-Irish Inter-Governmental Conference - and the Maryfield Secretariat had only been banished to an alternative Belfast address.

Some cynics indeed, still rooted in the old mode of thinking, and inclined only to see advantage for one side equalling disadvantage for the other, think the British-Irish Council little more than a talking shop - a "British dimension" to the overall settlement to comfort Mr Trimble while the North-South dimension provides the real focus and force for future change. Time may prove them right. But for Mr Trimble, at least, the British-Irish Council - in the context of the Republic's changed constitutional dispensation - made unionist flesh of what Charlie Haughey once termed "the totality of relationships".

Given the emerging consultation and implementation bodies, the nationalist/republican disposition is to foresee and assume a cross-border dimension to almost every facet of Northern Ireland life. However it will be fascinating to see to what degree other natural relationships and common interests develop - between Belfast, Cardiff, Dublin and Edinburgh - across a range of subjects from transport and infrastructure to tourism and agriculture, and the extent to which Mr Trimble's interests coincide with those of 10 and 11 Downing Street.

One possible complicating factor is the now seemingly extending timetable for possible British membership of the single currency. And while Mr Blair's European ambitions take second place to the business of winning that second term, there are continuing intriguing suggestions that the Northern Ireland settlement might somehow provide a prototype or laboratory for Mr Blair's intended European project.

Certainly this complex network of governments and governmental committees, of checks and balances and consensual decision-making processes, with its North/South and east/west dimensions, really does invite the politicians to rewrite and restructure the totality of those relationships in a way which even the draftsmen of the Good Friday accord can hardly yet comprehend.

It seems, moreover, that "the people" are happy to have them do so. Driving to Stormont to witness the nomination of the power-sharing Executive, the contrast with momentous days in earlier years was striking. There were no armed soldiers at the gates, no policemen clad in riot gear, no angry mobs pressing against the crash barriers. One detected a certain bemusement. If not exactly dancing in the streets, the citizens seemed content to let the politicians get on with it.

Or - more accurately - some of them. For the crucial fact, which the two governments ignore or lose sight of at their peril, is that Mr Trimble is effectively (at least for the moment) a minority shareholder within the majority community in the North. He and Mr Mallon raised themselves to condemn protests targeted against Brid Rodgers and Martin McGuinness, vowing nothing could thwart the implementation of an agreement endorsed by the overwhelming majority of the people.

But Mr Trimble will have been uncomfortably aware that the majority underpinning the Belfast Agreement presently comprises the nationalist and republican communities and a minority of unionists. Mr Trimble had lost the "first preference" vote in the Assembly elections the previous year. And he had only carried 58 per cent of his Ulster Unionist Council with him in forging ahead with the Executive, despite his promise to resign if IRA decommissioning is not under way by February.

The earnest prayer of the British and Irish governments is that the IRA will "do something" to alleviate Mr Trimble's predicament in the opening weeks of the new century. Yet at this writing there is no certainty that they will - let alone that any gesture would be the precursor to a rolling programme leading to total disarmament by May 22nd.

Indeed, ask most if not all key players in either capital, and they will privately confirm they do not consider that a serious prospect.

The benign hope then is that well-paid, high-profile jobs - and the prospect of future patronage, preferment and promotion - will see the new arrangements successfully bedded-down and feed the reluctance to see them fail. It might well.

However, Dublin in particular should appreciate the pain factor at play within unionism, and the likelihood that it will if anything increase. Many pro-agreement unionists have greeted Mr McGuinness' appointment as Education Minister with dismay and disbelief.

Unionists of all varieties can count Mr Trimble's men a minority even within the Northern Ireland half of the North South Council. And even some of the UUP leader's close friends and advisers privately share that scepticism about the real utility of the British Irish Council - their fear reflecting Dublin's hope that cross-borderism really is the shape of the future.

ALL the more crucial then, they insist, is that the republican movement be held to its "commitment" to disarm, and that the IRA begin the process credibly and convincingly well in advance of Mr Trimble's second rendezvous with his party's ruling council in February.

Twelve months ago - after a year of promise punctuated by failures and deadlines missed - this review concluded that Mr Trimble remained resolutely in the last ditch of decommissioning. After so much dramatic delivery - and with the crucial pain barrier of entering government with Sinn Fein crossed - the hope in political and diplomatic circles will be that Mr Trimble is less resolved to see everything crash on the decommissioning rock.

But even if he has departed the ditch (and that is not clear), Mr Trimble's party appears still firmly rooted in it.

Frank Millar can be contacted at fmillar@irish-times.ie