Barack Obama is in for sobering reading in the US National Intelligence Council’s latest review, writes Julian Borger
THE LEADING American intelligence organisation has warned that the world is entering an unstable and unpredictable period in which the advance of western-style democracy cannot be taken for granted, and the US will no longer be able to “call the shots” alone as its power begins to wane.
The global trends review, produced by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) every four years, makes sobering reading for Barack Obama as he prepares to take office. It marks a dramatic shift from its last review in 2004, which confidently predicted “continued US dominance . . . most major powers have forsaken the idea of balancing the US”.
The NIC now expects emerging economies such as China, India and Brazil to grow in influence at America’s expense. And it predicts that the EU will be “losing clout” by 2025: a “democracy gap” separating Brussels from voters will leave the EU “a hobbled giant”, unable to translate its economic power into global influence.
Looking ahead to 2025, the NIC, which co-ordinates analysis from all US intelligence agencies, foresees a fragmented world, where conflict over scarce resources is rising, poorly contained by “ramshackle” inter-national institutions, while nuclear proliferation, particularly in the Middle East, and even nuclear conflict grow more likely.
The report, Global Trends 2025: A World Transformed, warns that the spread of western democratic capitalism cannot be taken for granted, as it was by George W Bush and US neoconservatives.
“No single outcome seems preordained: the western model of economic liberalism, democracy and secularism, for example, which many assumed to be inevitable, may lose its lustre – at least in the medium term,” the report warns.
Giving the examples of Russia and China, the report adds: “Today, wealth is moving not just from west to east but is concentrating more under state control. In the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, the state’s role in the economy may be gaining more appeal in the world.”
By 2025, the report says, the US will have become “less dominant” in the world – no longer the unrivalled superpower it has been since the end of the cold war, but a “first among equals” in a more fluid and evenly balanced world that will make the unilateralism of the Bush era no longer tenable.
The report predicts that over the next two decades “the multiplicity of influential factors and distrust of vast power means less room for the US to call the shots without the support of strong partnerships”.
In a separate report, a US congressional panel warns that China is aggressively developing its power to wage cyber warfare and is now in a position to delay or disrupt the deployment of America’s military forces around the world, potentially giving it the upper hand in any conflict. The bipartisan panel’s review says China has the capability to launch cyber attacks “anywhere in the world”.
It found the lines between private espionage and state-sponsored operations were increasingly blurred – some hackers are even trained at military bases.
The NIC’s conclusions about the emerging multipolar world are in accord with president-elect Obama’s stated preference for multilateralism. But the NIC findings suggest that as the years go by it could be harder for Washington to put together “coalitions of the willing” to pursue its agenda.
International organisations such as the UN seem ill-prepared to fill the vacuum left by receding US power at a time of multiple potential crises driven by climate change and the increasing scarcity of resources such as oil, food and water. Those institutions “appear incapable of rising to the challenges without concerted efforts from their leaders”, the NIC says.
It has also dramatically changed its assessment of the world’s energy situation. Four years ago it argued that oil and gas supplies “in the ground” were “sufficient to meet global demand”, but the new report views a transition to cleaner fuels as inevitable. Only the speed of that change is in question.
The NIC believes it is likely that technology will lag behind the depletion of oil and gas reserves. A sudden transition, however, will bring problems of its own, creating instability in the Gulf and Russia. – (Guardian service)