KIEV – As Ukraine starts its first presidential election campaign since that popular movement in 2004 broke the grip of the post-Soviet establishment, its leader, president Viktor Yushchenko (55), stares a painful reality in the face: whatever happened to Ukraine’s Orange Revolution?
Opinion polls point to Viktor Yanukovich (59), his disgraced Moscow-backed opponent back then, easily getting through a January 17th election to go into a run-off vote. Just as bitter for Mr Yushchenko is the fact that his erstwhile “Orange” ally and now rival, prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko (48), is almost certain to be the other player in the second-round showdown, analysts say.
The president has ratings so low that none but his most loyal supporters see a chance of re-election.
Most Ukrainians hope the vote will end five years of political infighting that has paralysed decision-making and frustrated reform in one of Europe’s worst-performing economies.
It will also decide the extent to which the former Soviet state of 47 million will stick to Mr Yushchenko’s pro-western blueprint, or toe a more compliant line towards its old master, Russia. No matter who triumphs, most analysts expect renewed efforts to improve ties with Russia, including pushing pursuit of Nato membership on to the backburner.
The two states have been involved in disputes over the pricing and supply of Russian natural gas across Ukrainian territory to Europe. But Mr Yanukovich and Ms Tymoshenko will fend off competition from Russian big business and attempts to pull Ukraine back into Moscow’s sphere of influence, analysts say.
“The course for integration into the EU and Nato will be pushed back for at least five years,” said Vadym Karasev, director of the Institute for Global Strategies.
“The country will be suspended between the post-Soviet world of yesterday and the European one of tomorrow.” – (Reuters)