Tories may have to be patient a little longer

Some fancy April; others suggest June. But the smart money is on a May general election in Britain

Some fancy April; others suggest June. But the smart money is on a May general election in Britain. As the country returns to work this week after the Christmas and New Year celebrations, people's thoughts will turn to the forthcoming political contest.

For more than two weeks, however, there was little talk of politics and British people struggled through the festive season to travel across the country on a rail system crippled by overdue repairs or were stranded at airports by an unexpected snow fall.

Even the politicians limited their appearances, only emerging long enough to deliver short New Year messages. Labour sighed with relief when the curtain came down on the Millennium Dome.

The election campaign will be a long haul. Indeed, some believe it began last year when the government's Comprehensive Spending Review unveiled a £2 billion plan championing public services - health, education, transport and law and order - after the prudent policies of the first two years in power. And Mr Blair's New Year message, promising "competent economic management," provided a timely reminder for voters that a buoyant Labour economy coupled with increased public spending would be enough to eliminate Tory pre-election promises of tax cuts.

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The Tories undoubtedly have their problems. An effective performer at parliament and a "Save the Pound" policy over Europe are unlikely to save Mr Hague from electoral defeat, particularly since Labour will do their utmost to avoid discussion about membership of the euro until after polling day. And if Labour wins the election - and most commentators believe there is no point debating that question - Mr Blair will want to analyse the size of his majority before deciding the timing of a debate and referendum on the euro.

Some commentators believe Labour already has a core programme that is radical in ambition if not in its methods.

There has been a call from some analysts for Mr Blair to resist the urge to be radical and return to the traditional issues, like delivering competent services. The emphasis on the economy and public services has been welcomed, even if massive spending plans were announced in the latter part of the administration after ministers belatedly rediscovered commitments to old beliefs.

After all, commentators argue, Labour voters simply want a government that will deliver the pledges it has already made with the huge resources available to spend.

For 48 hours Labour remained silent this week about an anonymous £2 million donation. Backbenchers, including the chairman of the parliamentary Labour party, Mr Clive Soley, and the Conservatives accused the leadership of appearing to act against the spirit of new rules on accountability.

The pressure from all sides mounted and memories of the "Bernie Ecclestone" affair were revived in the media even though the issue at that time was more concerned with the appearance of political favouritism than anonymity.

Labour insisted it had not broken any rules, and it had not, but once the story had broken Labour realised it could not avoid charges of hypocrisy while keeping the donor's name out of the headlines.

Tuesday's announcement by the "discreet philanthropist" and publisher, Lord Hamlyn, that he had donated the money prevented embarrassment turning into disaster for Labour.

The issue is likely to provoke another debate on whether party election funds should be subsidised by state funds rather than large individual donations. But however much the Tories want to keep the issue alive, the Hamlyn donation will be forgotten in the long march to the general election.

Of course, a Labour Party dedicated to a 10-year spending plan on public services and following through on election pledges made in the heady days of its first term is not about to ease up on the fight against the Tories.

It may not be able to rely on tactical voting with Liberal Democrat voters to challenge the Conservatives this time, but in the absence of a strong, populist leader the Tories will probably have to wait a while longer to return to power.