FF's Dr Woods and Tommy Broughan for Labour look safe, writesMichael O'Regan, Parliamentary Reporter
At least one of the outgoing deputies in Dublin North East will not be returning to the Dáil.
It is now a three-seater, having lost a seat in the constituency revision since 1997. With four deputies in contention for three seats, it is shaping up to be an intense and bitter battle for every vote.
The general consensus is the Fianna Fáil seat is a certainty. It is expected to be taken by the Minister for Education, Dr Woods, who will top the poll.
The outgoing Labour TD, Mr Tommy Broughan, looks strong and should take the second seat. This would leave a knife-edge battle for the third seat between the second Fianna Fáil TD, Mr Martin Brady, and Fine Gael's Mr Michael Joe Cosgrave.
Dr Woods has carved a strong base in a constituency where Fianna Fáil has held two seats since 1944. A formidable ministerial survivor, he has been a member of every Fianna Fáil government since Jack Lynch made him his chief whip in 1979.
Mr Broughan has been building a high profile in the constituency and impressing in the Dáil as the party's spokesman on social and community affairs. If Labour finds itself part of the next coalition, he will have a strong claim to promotion.
He survived the downward slide in Labour's fortunes last time, when Mr Sean Kenny, the second Labour TD for the constituency, lost out. Holding the two seats, achieved in the swing to the party in 1992, was never a serious possibility, but the indications are that there is one Labour seat achievable in the new three-seater.
There was a time, also, when Fine Gael held two seats, so it was no surprise that Mr Cosgrave took the second Labour seat last time.
First elected to the Dáil in 1977, he held his seat in every subsequent election until 1992. An experienced and determined politician, with an impressive electoral record, he cannot be written off.
Nor can Mr Brady, despite being elected for the first time in 1997. He took the seat of the outgoing Fianna Fáil TD, Mr Liam Fitzgerald, now a senator, by a margin of 524 votes.
If the local elections are anything to go by, Mr Brady has been consolidating his position since. He polled 2,273 first preferences - a quota and a quarter - in the Donaghmede ward of Dublin Corporation in the 1999 local elections.
Mr Cosgrave's running mate is Mr Gavin Doyle from Sutton, who worked as an adviser to the party's Leinster MEP, Ms Avril Doyle.
Much may depend on how well Fine Gael is doing in the Dublin area on polling day. Suggestions that the party could be in serious difficulty in the capital have been strongly rejected by the party.
Fianna Fáil, with an outgoing northside Taoiseach, would appear to be stronger, and Mr Brady will probably hold his seat if there is an electoral spin-off from Mr Ahern's personal popularity.
But it will be a close battle, with any shift in national trends strongly influencing the destination of the third seat.
Other candidates include Mr Larry O'Toole of Sinn Féin, who doubled the party's vote from 2.72 per cent to 5.93 per cent in 1997. The Green Party's candidate is Mr David Healy, while Dr Mark Harold, who is associated with the Health Alliance, is running as an Independent.
Prediction: FF 2; Lab 1; FG loss.
1997: FF 40.61%; FG 18.90%; Lab 17.25%; PD 7.80%; GP 3.57% SF 5.93%; DL 3.70 %; NLP 0.42%; Others 1.82 %.
Outgoing TDs: Michael Woods, Martin Brady (FF); Michael J. Cosgrave (FG); Tommy Broughan (Lab).