THE TURBULENT Republican presidential campaign produced yet another twist at the weekend when a poll of Iowa caucus-goers showed a last-minute surge by Rick Santorum, the former senator who had been near the back of the pack for almost all of 2011.
The Des Moines Registerpoll conducted by Selzer Co, eagerly awaited by campaign teams because of its sophisticated polling techniques and accuracy in previous caucuses, suggested a tight finish tomorrow night.
The poll showed Mitt Romney on top with 24 per cent, Ron Paul on 22 per cent, Rick Santorum on 15 per cent, Newt Gingrich on 12 per cent, Rick Perry on 11 per cent and Michele Bachmann on 7 per cent.
A breakdown of figures revealed that over the last two days of the survey Mr Santorum enjoyed a big late surge in support.
The portion of the poll covering just the last two days left Mr Romney ahead on 24 per cent but had Mr Santorum leap-frogging Mr Paul to take second place on 21 per cent, leaving Mr Paul in third on 18 per cent.
Speaking at a campaign event in Ottumwa, before the figures emerged, Mr Santorum said he would do well because Iowan voters were ignoring the pundits who had written off his campaign. He predicted a close finish.
His surge owes much to his endorsement last week by two leaders of the Christian Evangelical movement, Bob Vander Plaats, chief executive of the Family Leader, and Chuck Hurley, president of the Iowa Family Policy Centre.
Christian evangelicals comprise an estimated 50 per cent of the more than 100,000 voters expected to turn out for the caucuses, the first contest in the 2012 Republican nomination process.
His rising poll figures will make him a target for the other campaigners who have, apart from Mr Perry, largely left him alone. Mr Perry has mounted an aggressive advertising campaign over the last week pointing to $1 billion in provisions that Santorum, who portrays himself as fiscally conservative, approved while a senator in Pennsylvania, including the notorious “Bridge to Nowhere” in Alaska.
If Santorum was to win, he would struggle to expand his campaign beyond Iowa. He has devoted himself to winning Iowa, addressing more than 360 townhall meetings in the last year, but has scant organisation outside the state and is one of the worst-funded of the candidates.
A Santorum win would help the Democratic party, which could portray the former Pennsylvania senator – strongly opposed to same-sex marriage and abortion, believing life begins at conception, and in favour of bombing Iran – as the face of the current Republican party.
A Santorum victory would also upset Mr Romney's hopes of a first-place finish that could help him wrap up the presidential nomination by the end of January. – ( Guardianservice)