Ireland says risk of no-deal Brexit is high

As a bitterly divided parliament resumes in Westminster after the summer break, the Irish Government has given a downbeat assessment on Brexit, saying it is clear the risk of a no-deal is high.

In his first full week in parliament as prime minister, Boris Johnson will face fierce opposition for proroguing parliament and insisting on an October 31st withdrawal from the European Union.

His Conservative government also face an opposition motion that would block a no-deal Brexit. The month-long prorogation will begin this weekend.

On Sunday, the EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, emphasised strongly that the backstop could not be renegotiated as part of the Withdrawal Agreement. In an opinion piece for the Sunday Telegraph, he put it firmly in the context of the Belfast Agreement, and said it represented the “maximum flexibility” the EU could offer.

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A Government spokeswoman said the EU position on the backstop was consistent and had been reiterated strongly by Mr Barnier on Sunday and by EU leaders in recent weeks.

“A no-deal outcome is in no one’s interest and the responsibility lies with London to avoid it,” she said. “Events in Westminster are a matter for the UK government and parliament. However, it is clear the risk of a no-deal Brexit is high and the Irish Government is preparing accordingly.”

In a reference to these unfolding events in the UK, the Department of Finance also said that “much should be clearer during the next week” in terms of the approach Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe will take to the October budget.

Mr Donohoe has been working on two different budget scenarios, depending on whether Britain’s exit from the EU is likely to be orderly, or disorderly.

He has yet to make his decision on which option he will take. “All of this depends on the Brexit background,” said the Minister’s spokeswoman.

The spokeswoman said in a no-deal scenario, the priority would be on protecting jobs and living standards. Tax cuts, she said, would depend on what scenario was adopted.

This week, Labour’s Brexit spokesman, Sir Keir Starmer, will table legislation in Westminster to block the UK leaving the EU without a deal. The de facto deputy prime minister Michael Gove refused to say yesterday if the government would abide with the legislation should it be adopted.

Changes

In London, the Alternative Arrangements Commission, a group dominated by hard Brexiteers, will on Monday publish recommended changes to the Withdrawal Agreement and political declaration setting out a future trade deal that they believe could pass the House of Commons.

Among the suggested changes are a proposal to allow the Northern Ireland backstop, opposed by pro-Brexit Conservative MPs, remain in the Withdrawal Agreement but with a set of obligations that the UK would have to satisfy to ensure that the insurance policy to avoid a hard Irish border would not be triggered.

The alternative arrangements, embraced by Mr Johnson in recent weeks, have been rejected by Irish and EU officials as not preventing a hard Irish border re-emerging in the manner that the backstop would achieve.

Fianna Fáil finance spokesman Michael McGrath said on Sunday he expected the Government to brief his party on the likely scenario as soon as was feasible.

“If there is a no-deal, the priorities must be to support the most vulnerable, the most affected sectors of the economy, and key services. The scope is very limited with only €700 million of discretionary spending,” he said.