UPRISING IN EGYPT:Though the generals have thrown in their lot with protesters, they may still be intent on keeping a grip on power
EGYPT’S SUPREME military council decided to act against commander-in-chief Hosni Mubarak yesterday when hundreds of thousands of democracy demonstrators poured on to the country’s streets and squares to continue their peaceful campaign to secure his resignation.
The military is likely to have been impressed by the strict discipline and good cheer displayed by disappointed, frustrated and angry Egyptians following Mubarak’s announcement on Thursday night that he would stay on as president until September.
The people’s determination to oust Mubarak showed that they would not be deflected from securing their objectives by promises from a president they did not trust. Their slogan, “Freedom or death”, would have raised fears of a bloodbath among the generals.
Massed democracy demonstrators in Tahrir Square reacted with jeers to the army’s call at noon for an end to protests in exchange for the lifting of emergency laws imposed in 1981 and acceptance of vice-president Omar Suleiman as successor to Mubarak.
The chant that rose over the square was “Illegitimate, illegitimate.”
It would have been obvious to the protesters on Thursday night that the armed forces chiefs, who had tried to project an image of neutrality, remained loyal to Mubarak and were wary of the democratic movement. However, the generals may have understood that concern had been voiced by many Egyptians over the military’s refusal to tackle Mubarak. The people continued to express confidence in mid-ranking officers and conscript soldiers deployed around Tahrir Square and at other strategic locations in Cairo and elsewhere.
Furthermore, the supreme council would have been shocked when at least 15 middle-ranking officers went over to the side of the demonstrators yesterday.
“The armed forces solidarity movement has begun,” declared Maj Ahmad Shouman. “Our goals and the people’s are one.”
The people responded: “One hand, people and army.”
A well-connected source pointed out that existing divisions among chiefs and between ranks in the armed services seemed to have been exacerbated by such defections. The source observed that the generals keep control of brigadiers and lieutenant colonels – officers thought to be coup prone – by rotating them on a six- monthly basis to ensure that they do not have time to cultivate the affection and allegiance of men under their command. The mass movement will only “pass through the stage of revolt to revolution when the army joins the demonstrators”, said the source.
However, it is not certain that the transition to revolution has yet been effected.
The armed forces, still under the firm control of senior officers, have thrown in their lot with people power because they had no other option. But the organisers of the democratic movement have to ensure that it is not hijacked by field marshals and generals who may fully intend to maintain their long-standing grip on power rather than make the transition to democracy, with free and fair elections and the rule of law.
“We don’t want the the military to jump into Mubarak’s chair,” said one of the protesters, engineering student Abdullah.