Opinion polls to be banned during the last week of elections

The publication of opinion polls during the last week of election campaigns is to be banned by the Government, following its surprise decision last night to accept a Fine Gael proposal.

The Minister of State for the Environment, Mr Bobby Molloy, revealed the decision during the Committee Stage hearing of the Electoral Amendment Bill.

The move will be welcomed by politicians generally, though it may create a row between the Government and the National Newspapers of Ireland association, which opposed a previous banning attempt.

Yesterday, senior Fianna Fail figures complained that yesterday's TG4 Tipperary South by-election poll had badly damaged their candidate, Mr Michael Maguire's, chances.

An amendment to the Bill is to be brought forward when it comes back before the Dail for Report Stage, though it is understood that it will cover both broadcast and print media.

Last night, Fine Gael TD Ms Olivia Mitchell welcomed the decision.

"Opinion polls can provide valuable and accurate information about voter preferences and judgments on issues which arise between and even during elections.

"However, there is a point in the process of an election when the publishing of an opinion poll stops being merely informative and becomes manipulative and can unduly influence the outcome of an election or a referendum.

"Attempting to second guess the verdict of the public can become a self-fulfilling prediction and can produce a sort of collective view of candidates or issues rather than a series of individual choices.

"The Irish electorate as individuals are well able, and should be allowed, to make up their own minds about how they will vote without the benefit of knowing how others have decided to vote," said Ms Mitchell.

However, the ban will not stop political parties from carrying out their own sampling in the final days of campaigns "as long as it is not published", sources predicted last night. An attempt to ban final week polls was made by the then Fianna Fail minister for the environment, Mr Padraig Flynn, in the early 1990s, although he was eventually forced to withdraw the proposal.