Iraq is more like a barracks than a country these days. On the main road from Baghdad to Basra army squadrons keep a wary eye on the skyline and an even closer eye on the local population. Tanks, armoured cars, anti-aircraft guns and thousands of soldiers are in evidence everywhere. Every kilometre or so a small, simple army compound bears testimony to the fact that this is an army of occupation. The south of Iraq is predominantly Shia, while the security forces are drawn overwhelmingly from the Sunni Muslim centre and north.
Each little fort has a large machine-gun pointed at the road and a mobile armoured car. In the wake of the Gulf War, an uprising here led to thousands of deaths before it was brutally suppressed by an Iraqi army recovering from defeat. Since then, the US and Britain have encouraged a low level resistance to the government of President Saddam Hussein, with little success. After the four day bombardment by US and British bombs, the south is damaged but does not appear to be in any mood for a fresh revolt.
Fifty kilometres outside Basra, I saw the effects on the Republican Guard of an American attack. A small tank platoon had bivouacked just off the road. Eight tanks pointed their gun menacingly in the direction of the city. Wreckage was strewn around, apparently the aftermath of the attack. At least three tanks and four armoured personnel carriers appeared to be destroyed. The encampment was surrounded by anti-aircraft guns and jumpy soldiers, who waved me on when I tried to engage them in conversation.
The south of Iraq was heavily bombed during Operation Desert Fox, or Operation Monica as the Iraqi newspapers have dubbed the four-day blitz. In Basra, telecommunications facilities were destroyed night after night. The port at Um-Qasr was hit by heavy missiles and the country's most important economic asset, the Basra Oil Refinery, is still in flames.
A massive column of filthy black smoke rises from the site polluting the environment and reminding the Iraqis of their vulnerability to outside attack. The local authorities were determined to show me only those civilian sites which had been hit, such as the telephone company offices, but the unmistakable impression gained after a day in the city, is that the government's hold on Basra has been substantially weakened but not undermined in the past week.
The bombing of the oil refinery may well be the most significant event of the four-day war. Iraq's oil industry is already teetering on the brink of collapse. Spare parts have been cannibalised from other refineries because of the economic embargo which strictly limits trade. Production is low and quality appalling. The Basra refinery was to have been refurbished to enable Iraq to pump more oil to pay for food imports under the UN-controlled Oil For Food Agreement. That deal was already under pressure as a result of plummeting oil prices. It now looks very fragile indeed and the spectre of food shortages looms.
Few countries in the world are blessed with such an abundance of natural resources as Iraq. It has the second highest level of proven oil reserves in the world. Its two main rivers, the Tigris and the Euphrates coupled with a favourable climate, provide perfect conditions for agriculture. But a megalomaniacal leadership bent on being a military superpower has brought only war, sanctions and suffering to its people. At least 10 of the last 20 years have been spent at war, the rest under international sanctions.