New UUP leader looks to future but party of Carson seems rooted in past

Sir Reg Empey faces an uphill struggle in rebuilding a demoralised party that was once an all-powerful monolith, writes Dan Keenan…

Sir Reg Empey faces an uphill struggle in rebuilding a demoralised party that was once an all-powerful monolith, writes Dan Keenan, Northern News Editor.

Sir Reg Empey, the new Ulster Unionist leader, has it all to do. The party which views itself as the natural party of government has just begun its second century with reality badly at odds with its self-image.

Its vote halved, its Commons representation down to one, its councillors and influence diminished and its membership demoralised and fatalistic, things could scarcely look more stark for David Trimble's successor.

He must now tackle Himalayan challenges of rebuilding, disciplining and energising his ageing party.

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Marking a "century of service" to the Union this year, the party has published a calendar featuring the portraits of the 12 men, many of them knights and British army officers, who have led it through the Home Rule crisis, the Rising, partition and the Troubles.

But Sir Reg, on the dawn of his leadership, must know that knighthoods, Orange connections and British army records are no longer the currency they once were.

Northern Ireland has changed utterly since the Carson, Craig and Brooke eras.

Like them he has exercised ministerial power at Stormont, but in stark contrast he has only done so courtesy of coalition with Sinn Féin and the SDLP, and with the Irish Government now an integral part of the structure of governance.

Since the catastrophe of the May 5th elections and Trimble's resignation, a triumvirate comprising Lady (Sylvia) Hermon, party president Lord Rogan and Sir Reg have been representing the party during the interregnum.

They have hosted a series of party meetings.

These shout-ins - some of them acrimonious and difficult, according to sources - have identified common themes.

Throughout the consultation process ordinary unionists voiced a clear demand for a fresh start, for identifiable policies distinct - as they see it - from the empty promises of Robinson and Paisley.

Certainly there are isolated voices who accuse Trimble of bringing the party down to its current lowly state.

Trimble, for all his negotiating skills, raw nerve and Downing Street connections, appeared aloof and esoteric to them. They perceived him as wanting in party discipline, especially in relation to the Jeffrey Donaldson saga, and believe he stored too much faith in republicans and in Tony Blair, who ultimately sacrificed him.

They associate him with a rusty electoral fighting machine, compared to the slickness of the DUP, and with some very wonky PR campaigns - remember the "decent people" election adverts? Most Ulster Unionists, though, grant their former leader his achievements, but feel these have been won at an awful cost. Crucially, they hunger for a fresh start and a new beginning.

How then is this to be provided by one of Trimble's right-hand men? With a common call for a cabal-free leadership style ringing in his ears, surely Sir Reg must accept he was once a fully-fledged member of the ruling Trimble clique?

Perhaps the answer to that riddle lies in the example of Trimble himself. Once a member of Bill Craig's hardline Vanguard movement, Trimble transformed himself from the man who paraded triumphantly down Garvaghy Road in Portadown with Ian Paisley into a Nobel laureate and co-author of the Belfast Agreement.

Perhaps Sir Reg, another Vanguard man, may work a similar transformation.

He knows he can choose his own direction now he has been awarded the keys of the party and the freedom of leadership.

Unlike Trimble, Empey knows the burden that comes with leading the majority of unionists is now firmly on the shoulders of the DUP. As a result, the new Ulster Unionist boss could be freer to act than any of his recent predecessors.

He could, of course, take note of a remark in the Dáil by the late Seán MacEntee, who quoted political consistency as being "a doubtful virtue, which, no doubt, is why some people are not addicted to it".

However, a palpable sense of fatalism at the core of the UUP may serve to hold back any leadership-driven push for change.

Political gossip has it that one young UUP turk, with an ambition for seniority, has forecast he will be the leader who negotiates a place for unionists in a united Ireland.

It is a striking remark which reflects a peculiar strain of opinion within the party. Quite why so many unionists are defeatist is hard to fathom.

The answer could lie in the realisation, underscored by this year's centenary, that the party was once an all-powerful monolith whereas now it is merely one of the pack.

Its power was once all-embracing. Now its influence is heavily qualified and subject to the nod from others.

If Sir Reg knows anything about political achievement, he must accept it is difficult to realise without first fostering a sense of self-belief, confidence and determination.

There may be opportunities for the UUP ahead. The Rev Ian Paisley has not signed up to any deal yet, nor has he fought an election seeking endorsement of, rather than vowing to destroy, new arrangements.

If and when he does, perhaps that is where lies Ulster Unionism's best chances of reasserting itself.

Lord Carson looks a stern figure in the self-congratulatory UUP centenary calendar. He appears every bit the diehard as his statue before Stormont's Parliament Buildings suggests.

However, the Northern Ireland he gestures to so defiantly has changed - and is changing more rapidly than the glacial pace normally associated with unionism.

The 13th Ulster Unionist leader may need to take account of that.