Violence in Thailand reflects a split between urban and rural society, writes CLIFFORD COONANin Bangkok
THE SIGHT of troops facing off against protesters wearing coloured T-shirts on the streets of Bangkok has become a depressingly familiar one.
On the day that marks the start of the Thai New Year, normally the country’s happiest celebration, blood was shed on the streets and people stayed in their homes, afraid.
“Red shirts run amok” was the headline in the Bangkok Post. A cab driver complained about how this was yet another blow to the tourism industry in a country which is so dependent on foreign visitors.
“Yellows against reds, reds against yellows. What about the rest of us?” he said as the car sped through streets emptied of people on a night when normally they would be full of people celebrating New Year.
Unrest comes so often to Thailand that it has become hard to judge the seriousness of the situation, and this is a country that is used to functioning extremely well with a high degree of instability.
However, there is a sense now that the unrest that has again brought tension to the wide avenues, government buildings and intersections of Bangkok is more threatening than on previous occasions.
There have already been four prime ministers in Thailand in the last year, and Abhisit Vejjajiva may be another casualty of the instability before too long. There are signs that the army is acting to crush the current unrest, and if this becomes a major crackdown with serious bloodshed, it could force a turn of public opinion against his administration that would be hard to shake off.
It is going to be difficult for his government to rule effectively, after his public humiliation at the weekend when protesters forced cancellation of the Asean summit of Asian leaders in Pattaya, forcing some of the political leaders to escape by helicopter.
At the heart of the conflict lies a battle between yellow and red, and both sides detest each other passionately.
The red-shirted protesters, the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship, who are currently protesting, are supporters of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is a populist leader with a lot of support among the poor, particularly the rural poor.
Even though he is in exile, his popularity has proven remarkably resilient. Before he was deposed in a military coup in 2006, he won two elections, and his allies won a subsequent election after he was sent into exile.
Demonstrators from the red side say Mr Abhisit’s four-month-old government took power illegally. They want fresh elections, and the chances are that Mr Thaksin would win.
They also accuse the country’s elite – the military, judiciary and other unelected officials – of undermining democracy by interfering in politics.
Mr Thaksin has been sending messages to his supporters saying it is a“golden time” to rise up against the government, and calling for a people’s revolution.
Thailand has seen 18 coups since 1932 and another one is certainly a possibility if there is blood in the streets. In that event, Mr Thaksin said he would return to Thailand to lead a popular uprising – in short, the country would be in the grip of civil war.
It is very difficult to see a way out of the crisis, as at the heart of the disagreement between reds and yellows are demands by the reds for Mr Thaksin to be allowed to come back to Thailand, a situation that the other side cannot tolerate.
The yellow side is made up of the Bangkok elite and the urban middle class, who resent Mr Thaksin’s tight grip on the media, and his corruption.
The yellow side is also supported by the royal palace and the army. When the People’s Alliance for Democracy occupied the airport in Bangkok last year, they were allowed to remain for a week without any efforts to remove them by the powers-that-be, while the government was forced into exile in Chiang Mai, Mr Thaksin’s area of core support.
Thai insiders say the reason the problem is escalating is because the police are not being used effectively, and that the deputy prime minister, Suthep Thaugsuban, who is in charge of security, underestimated the threat posed by support for the red side in the police force, which means the army has been forced to come out and act.
Yesterday’s clashes are a major escalation of what has become years of protests in Thailand, a southeast Asian country known as the Land of Smiles because of its friendly, gentle citizens.
The coming months look certain to bring even more trouble in paradise.