Security and republican sources appear to be in agreement that the recent resignations of a small number of IRA figures, based in the Border region, are of little consequence to either the IRA or its ceasefire.
According to some sources, the resignations might actually be a cause for hope for the future of the peace process and associated political negotiations. Probably the most important figure involved is a Co Louth man who held the post of quartermaster and had charge of the movement of weapons from arms dumps in the South West into the North. He has been opposed to the peace process and is understood to hold a strong dislike of the Sinn Fein leadership of Gerry Adams. There have been several reports of his stance.
He had control over the movement of weapons for several years before the first ceasefire in 1994 and must have an intimate knowledge of the organisation's arsenal, from the whereabouts of dumps to the type of materiel it controls.
Garda and republican sources, however, say there does not appear to be any major concern in Republican circles about his decision to leave, let alone surprise. There has been speculation in Republican circles that this man has come to the realisation that with the seemingly inexorable move towards a political settlement in Northern Ireland the day was coming when the IRA would have to hand over some weapons. It is said that in keeping with his position of disagreeing with the policies of the present Republican leadership, he simply did not wish to be the figure who was responsible for the handing over of weapons under any decommissioning arrangements. It was expected that he would leave the organisation and he recently became heavily involved in expanding a small, legitimate business he set up with his wife.
The other figure to resign is reputed to have been the strongest opponent of the ceasefire on the Provisional IRA's Army Council. Until the last year or so, he is believed to have held the position of chief of staff but this may have been largely a titular post. He lives in north Monaghan.
He is known to hold extremely hardline political and sectarian views and was responsible for overseeing a murderous campaign against Border Protestants which culminated in the bombing of the Remembrance ceremony in Enniskillen 10 years ago in which 11 Protestants were killed. The campaign was discerned by many as a clear attempt to force Protestants out of the Border area and likened to genocide and Bosnian "ethnic cleansing".
Since Enniskillen, the rest of the Republican leadership gradually distanced itself from him and his position. In recent years, he has become increasingly isolated although he would probably still command some support in his native east Tyrone and in the traditionally hard-line Republican areas of north Monaghan and Fermanagh.
His opposition to the ceasefire and peace process has also been well reported in recent years. Importantly, this man's status was significantly diminished by the strong vote for Mr Caoimhghin O Caolain, the successful Sinn Fein candidate in Cavan-Monaghan in the 1997 general election. Mr O Caolain stood on a strong peace ticket and became the first Sinn Fein member to be elected to the Dail in 16 years.
There is no sign that senior Provisional IRA figures like these are contemplating either joining the rival Continuity IRA (CIRA) group, which is associated with the break-away political party, Republican Sinn Fein (RSF), or setting up their own organisation.
At least two young Provisional IRA figures, both from important republican families in Armagh, did defect to the CIRA during the summer and are believed to have been involved in the bomb attack on the mainly Protestant village of Markethill, Co Armagh, in midSeptember. There are reports that other young republicans are being attracted to the CIRA/RSF but no sign yet that this is developing into a significant movement. The overall assessment of the military position of the IRA, as with the other main loyalist and republican paramilitary groups, remains that they were defeated militarily. This was heavily underlined during the 18 months up to July this year when the IRA broke its ceasefire. During that period, it suffered extraordinary losses of weapons and large numbers of arrests at the hands of the security forces on both islands.
Dozens of people, including key figures in the IRA, are still in custody awaiting trial on serious offences. Some are facing jail terms which could keep them in prison for the next 20 years. There are clear indications from this group, and their families, that they support the maintenance of the ceasefire, holding out the hope of early releases.