Sligo-North Leitrim could be a telling signpost for the outcome of the next election, writes Michael O'Regan
There is considerable speculation in Sligo and Leitrim about the future political career plans of Independent TD and MEP Marian Harkin, who has to make a choice between the Dáil and the European Parliament.
If as expected, she opts for Europe, this will change the political landscape in the new three-seat Sligo-North Leitrim constituency and pave the way for a bitter battle between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael for the third seat. The outcome will be a significant barometer of the national contest between a Fianna Fáil-led coalition and the alternative rainbow led by Fine Gael.
The current consensus is that outgoing TDs Jimmy Devins (FF) and John Perry (FG) will retain their seats, with the battle between Mr Devins's likely running mate Senator Eamon Scanlon and the second Fine Gael candidate for the third seat. A strong performance is expected from Sinn Féin, although local veteran Seán McManus, is likely to lose out again, while Labour will face a major uphill struggle to regain a seat it held in the old Sligo-Leitrim constituency between 1992 and 1997.
There was a time when Sligo-Leitrim was a jewel in Fianna Fáil's electoral crown, returning three out of the four seats in the Ray MacSharry era. Sligo-based Mr MacSharry, a former senior minister and EU commissioner, is still influential and an invaluable adviser to his son, Senator Marc MacSharry, the chief executive of Sligo Chamber of Commerce, who has his eyes firmly set on a Dáil seat in the long-term.
"The MacSharrys have not gone away, you know," said a local source. "They are watching and waiting." But, for now, Mr Devins is the undisputed Sligo-town based candidate, and the MacSharrys will lend their weight to securing the two seats. At 32, Marc MacSharry has plenty of time in which to wait as the heir-apparent.
Mr Devins has much to play for in the next election. A medical doctor, who has been impressive in defending health policy, he seems destined for at least junior ministerial office if Fianna Fáil is returned to power.
If the party succeeded in securing two out of the three seats this would copperfasten his claim to ministerial promotion.
Ballymote-based Mr Scanlon narrowly lost out the last time, polling 6,345 first preferences, with the quota standing at 9,795. "I had 13.8 per cent, and 14 per cent would have given me a seat," said Mr Scanlon. He said he believed Fianna Fáil could take two seats in the new constituency.
As in the case of Mr Devins, the stakes will be very high for Mr Perry. A dynamic constituency worker, who moved his local election base from his native Ballymote to Sligo town to consolidate his Dáil base, before the ending of the dual mandate, Mr Perry will be in the reckoning for ministerial promotion from Enda Kenny if Fine Gael gains power.
Mr Perry was very prominent at last week's Sligo races, being one of the sponsors and hosting a reception for Mr Kenny and his parliamentary colleagues.
A staunch Kenny loyalist, Mr Perry did well in exposing the nursing home charges' controversy and is currently the party's spokesman for the marine. Should Fine Gael win two seats, his claim to ministerial advancement will be without dispute.
However, unlike the neat geographical spread of the likely two Fianna Fáil candidates, matters are much more problematic for Fine Gael, and there are growing tensions within the local organisation on who should be Mr Perry's running mate.
Mr Perry has promised a "strong ticket" to attract voters behind a putative west of Ireland taoiseach. But, as the candidate with a Sligo town base, will Mr Perry want local town-based councillor, Tony McLoughlin, nephew of former TD Joe McLoughlin, on the ticket? He might be too close for comfort.
Mr Perry is thought to look favourably on IFA activist, Michael Comiskey, who is based in Newtownmanor, in north Leitrim, close to the Sligo border.
"I intend to put my name forward at the selection convention," said Mr Comiskey, chairman of the IFA's national hill committee. He said north Leitrim people felt they should not be left without their own TD."
Also considering putting his name forward is Joe Leonard, a member of Sligo County Council since 1985.
The obvious Labour candidate is former TD Declan Bree, who was elected in the "Spring tide" of 1992 and lost his seat in 1997, but relations between Mr Bree and party headquarters are strained. Mr Bree is seen as very much to the left of the party, ideologically more at home with Joe Higgins than Pat Rabbitte's more centre-ground policy.
The local constituency council wants to run two candidates, Mr Bree and Gabriel McSharry, from Manorhamilton, in Leitrim, an unsuccessful local election candidate, but it remains to be seen if this is acceptable to headquarters. A further complicating factor is that Mr Bree is strongly opposed to a pre-election pact with Fine Gael.
Sinn Féin's Seán MacManus polled just over 5,000 first preferences in the last election, but the constituency revision means that he has lost south Leitrim, a strong republican base.
His performance could depend on fallout from the recent IRA statement.
But the real battle is expected between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael for the vital third seat, as it becomes a critical marginal influencing the overall national result.