Politicians seeking a Yes vote have broadened their arguments but theywill face vigorous opposition, reports Mark Brennock, Political Correspondent
The Government parties will be selling a different pro-Nice Treaty message than last year. Then their narrowly focused and largely technical campaign was outmanoeuvred by a broad alliance of anti-Nice campaigners who raised broader concerns about the direction of Europe.
This time, the Government parties will put forward a broader argument: that EU membership has been good for the Irish economy over almost three decades, and that a Yes vote is needed to keep Ireland at the heart of the Union. Ministers have been told to emphasise the economy at every opportunity.
They also hope to neutralise the argument that the treaty could compromise Irish neutrality. At the EU summit in Seville in June, the Government and EU leaders issued separate declarations affirming Irish neutrality. The Government will emphasise this strongly.
While the campaign against Nice will be strong, the Dáil has a substantial Yes majority. Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour and the PDs will all be campaigning for a Yes vote. They will face vigorous opposition from the Green Party, Sinn Féin, the Socialist Party and a number of Independents.
Fianna Fáil has reassembled the team that managed its general election campaign earlier this year. Mr P.J. Mara is director of elections again while general secretary Mr Martin Mackin, former Taoiseach's adviser Mr Peter McDonagh and the party's press office staff will form the nucleus of the campaign.
Just as then they have conducted substantial market research to find out what the public wants to hear. And so the party will emphasise the economic benefits that have accrued during EU membership because the research suggests this will strike a chord among voters. The economy will be better served through full EU membership rather than a "semi-detached" status that could result from a second No vote, it will say.
Fianna Fáil has also appointed each deputy as a director of elections in his/her Dáil constituency or part of it. The party will produce posters and leaflets, but finances may limit the amount of material it can pay for.
Fine Gael begins a series of 17 regional meetings around the State in Navan tomorrow night. Party front-bench members and guest speakers such as former EU Commissioner Mr Peter Sutherland and current Commissioner Mr David Byrne will address the meetings seeking a Yes vote. Later in the campaign, Fine Gael will produce leaflets and posters. A party spokeswoman said yesterday it would not decide on what pro-Nice argument to concentrate on until it received feedback on the public's concerns through the public meetings.
Labour and the Progressive Democrats will also mount poster and leaflet campaigns seeking a Yes vote. According to a Labour spokesman, the party will emphasise the desire to show solidarity with the applicant states. The PDs, like Fianna Fáil, will push economic arguments and warn of possible economic damage should Ireland vote No again. The party will set up a Vote Yes marquee at the National Ploughing Championships later this month.
All of the Dáil-based opponents said they will steer clear of anyone seeking to put the race issue into the public debate. The Green Party has appointed Dublin Mid West TD Mr Paul Gogarty as director of its campaign. The party will campaign under the slogan "For a Democratic Europe", arguing that the EU's decision-making processes are undemocratic, and the decision to hold a second referendum on the same issue is also undemocratic.
"We will be steering clear of those with xenophobic tendencies, and arguing that we are pro-enlargement and pro-Europe," said Mr Gogarty. "Our argument is not against Europe, but the direction Europe is now taking."
Sinn Féin will highlight its desire for an independent Irish foreign policy and will also campaign heavily on the proposition that holding a second referendum is undemocratic. A spokesman said the party will produce a newsletter on the topic for distribution around the country, a poster campaign and a series of press conferences. The party's president and other senior figures from Northern Ireland will also get involved. Sinn Féin expects to mount a significant door-to-door canvas in the constituencies where it has TDs and a number of others.
Mr Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party will campaign for a No vote, with his party canvassing door to door in a number of areas.
Mr Finian McGrath of Independent Health Alliance (Dublin North Central) and Mr Seamus Healy, Independent (Tipperary South), said they will work vigorously against the treaty, producing leaflets and campaigning door to door. "I am concerned about the reduced power for Ireland, the threat to our ability to conduct an independent foreign policy and the ability of the Rapid Reaction Force to carry out offensive military operations four thousand kilometres outside the EU," said Mr McGrath.
Mr Tony Gregory, Independent (Dublin Central), will not mount a constituency campaign, but will speak against the treaty in the Dáil and at a number of public meetings. Mr Niall Blaney, Independent (Donegal North East), has not formally adopted a position, but said he called for a No vote last time and has heard nothing to change his mind.
Of the 13 Independents, five are on the Yes side, four on the No side with three saying they have not made up their minds. One, Mr Paudge Connolly (Cavan-Monaghan) could not be contacted for comment yesterday.
Dr Liam Twomey (Wexford) said he is inclined to vote Yes. "But I am as a confused as the next person as to what the result will be for Ireland in the years to come." He said he was concerned that the public would use the opportunity to make an anti-Government protest vote.
Dr Jerry Cowley (Mayo) is also a Yes voter, but feels the Government may have undermined its campaign through the recent health cuts. He said the democratic deficit - where there is no prior Oireachtas scrutiny of EU directives - must be addressed properly. Ms Marian Harkin (Sligo Leitrim) said she will be canvassing for a Yes vote, although some of her supporters will be seeking a No vote. Ms Mildred Fox (Wicklow) and Mr Michael Lowry (Tipperary South) will also be calling for a Yes vote.
Three Independents put themselves in the "don't know" category. According to Mr Paddy McHugh (Galway East): "There are good arguments on both sides and what I decide in the end will be based on what I think will be best for the country." Similarly Mr James Breen (Clare) and Mr Jackie Healy-Rae (Kerry South) said they have not yet made up their minds, but will do so after the Dáil debate this week and next.