Expect the blood to flow a six into five won't go

AT A recent meeting of Castlebar UDC, enraged councillors queued up to attack Mulranny GP, Dr Jerry Cowley, over comments he …

AT A recent meeting of Castlebar UDC, enraged councillors queued up to attack Mulranny GP, Dr Jerry Cowley, over comments he made in an interview with The Big Issues magazine.

Their reaction was seen by many as disproportionate to Dr Cowley's comments, which concerned the Sacred Heart Home in Castlebar. They betrayed a nervousness about the forthcoming election which has become endemic among Mayo politicians in recent months.

Underlying it is the fact that the contest in the new five seater constituency - comprising the former Mayo East and Mayo West - will provide one of the most fascinating spectacles for political observers. With six sitting TDs chasing five seats, coupled with up to three serious challengers for seats, there is the prospect of bloodletting on a grand scale.

Dr Cowley, whose successful campaign for an orthopaedic bed unit at Castlebar General Hospital won him much respect in the county in the run up to the 1994 by election, has been active in recent months in the water charges campaign.

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He may still stand as an Independent, but without an emotive issue such as water charges he is unlikely to make much headway.

Two Fianna Fail TDs, Westport councillor Seamus Hughes and Ballina GP, Dr Tom Moffatt, were first elected to the Dail in 1992. Their seats are vulnerable, as is the one held by the Fine Gael auctioneer from Westport, Mr Michael Ring.

But then again, so is Fianna Fail's P.J. Morley, the quiet man of Dail Eireann. He comes from the south of the constituency near Claremorris. A TD since 1977, Mr Morley has yet to make any impact on the national stage. Of all the sitting TDs, he is thought to be in most danger.

Mr Ring caused a sensation in the Mayo West by election in 1994 when he defeated the Fianna Fail candidate, Ms Beverly CooperFlynn.

Ms Cooper Flynn was expected to win the seat vacated by her father, Mr Padraig Flynn, when he became EU Social Affairs Commissioner. In the event, the electorate decided to rebuff the notion of a Flynn dynasty, opting instead to "give the Dail a Ring".

Ms Cooper Flynn's defeat was due in large measure to a split in the Fianna Fail camp, as many objected to the Dublin based candidate being foisted on them by head office. Fences have been mended in the meantime, however, and she is now expected to romp home ahead of the sitting Fianna Fail TDs.

But the party is still in some disarray in the county, and it is difficult to see it winning three seats. It is equally difficult to see Fine Gael winning the same number.

The key to the contest will be Ballina, where resentment over the preferential treatment afforded Castlebar during the Flynn years remains a potent force. One to watch is Cllr Ernie Caffrey, a Ballina publican who polled impressively for Fine Gael in the last two general elections.

The prospect of a transfer pact between the Independents gives Mr Paddy McGuinness a strong chance of taking a seat if he goes forward. He stood on the Castle bar RTC ticket in 1992 and polled 6,275 first preference votes. He will poll well if he stands again, because of mistrust over the Government's continuing support for the fledgling campus. The two main parties have less to fear from Nora Bennis's National Party. It has not attracted much support in the county.

When the votes are counted, Enda Kenny and Jim Higgins are likely to hold on for Fine Gael and Ms Cooper Flynn and Dr Moffatt will take seats for Fianna Fail. The fifth seat will be won by Independent candidate, Mr Paddy McGuinness, if he stands. Otherwise, it will go to Mr Ring.