Escalation in violence feared

THE weekend tit for tat republican and loyalist murder attempts and a gloomy political prognosis have heightened fears of the North and possibly the two islands entering a new spiral of violence.

The conviction that either the UDA or the UVF carried out Sunday's bomb attack in North Belfast was strengthened yesterday by the refusal of the political representatives of the loyalist paramilitaries to condemn the bombing which injured leading republican Mr Eddie Copeland.

The Ulster Democratic Party (UDP), linked to the UDA, declined to condemn the bombing while Mr David Ervine, spokesman for the Progressive Unionist Party (PUP), which is associated with the UVF, delivered an insistent no comment" when asked for his reaction.

The security services on both sides of the Border are on a state of high alert over fears of further IRA or loyalist attacks. The security situation darkened last night with the additional disclosure that the INLA is to meet soon to decide on its reaction to the Ardoyne car bombing.

The Ulster Unionist Party leader, Mr David Trimble, yesterday signalled that with local and Westminster elections looming next year, it is unlikely that there can be any movement in the talks process until then.

"It is difficult to see how there can be a coherent talks process in the middle of an election campaign," he said.

The SDLP leader, Mr John Hume, accused the unionist parties of being afraid to deal with Sinn Fein against the background of an IRA ceasefire, which he insisted is still possible if Sinn Fein is allowed into talks.

Leading churchmen and senior politicians from all the main parties urged the republican and loyalist paramilitaries to "retreat from the brink" of a potential new spiral of violence that could be on a par with what the North suffered prior to the 1994 ceasefires.

In a period of Christmas dread, there was at least some encouraging comments from republican and loyalist politicians who would be expected to, at least, have the ear of the paramilitaries.

The Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams, called on all armed groups to show restraints this, Christmas. "I want to seed right across all sections of our people some sense of this Christmas season, and I want to see people enjoying a peaceful Christmas," he said.

Mr Adams urged nationalist and unionist politicians to fill the current political vacuum.

So far no grouping has admitted the bomb attack on Mr Copeland who is in a "stable" condition in hospital, although there was speculation last night that the UDA in west Belfast was responsible.

It is expected that the Combined Loyalist Military Command (CLMC), umbrella group for the loyalist paramilitaries, is to meet shortly to decide on its future strategy.

Some politicians and observers drew solace from the fact that the CLMC has not so far admitted the attack. Such an admission would be tantamount to declaring its ceasefire is over.

Mr Gary McMichael of the UDP said yesterday that there was still no clear indication that the attack on Mr Copeland signalled the end of the loyalist ceasefire.

"The CLMC have not made any public comment, and if the ceasefire was truly over I would have thought that they would make a public pronouncement. That has not happened at this stage, and I have not been given any indication privately that that would be the case," he said on BBC Radio.

Mr McMichael said the UDP was trying to ensure that the current situation did not deteriorate, and to restore some degree of stability.

The UUP and DUP said the loyalist paramilitaries should not be provoked by the IRA into further violence. If it is established that either the UDA or UVF was responsible for the bombing, the future of the loyalist parties in the multi party talks will be cast into serious doubt.

Maol Mu ire Tynan adds:

Assessing the mood coming up to Christmas in Northern Ireland as "bleak and sombre", the Fianna Fail leader, Mr Bertie Ahern, said the most patriotic act the IRA could now commit would be to declare an immediate and final ceasefire.

Government sources in Dublin, meanwhile, expressed pessimism at the worsening situation, but said they hoped restrain would be exercised to halt the slippage. It was "impossible" to gauge what would happen next but the prospects were "not good", they added.

Strongly condemning the attack on the bodyguard of the DUP general secretary, Mr Nigel Dodds, as "heinous and inhuman", Mr Ahern warned that the IRA need not expect new governments in London or Dublin to be in a position, "even if they so wish", to pick up the pieces and "rescue the republican movement" from the long term consequences of violence that may have occurred in the interim.

Saying violence only undermined efforts to restore the peace process, Mr Ahern added that it also reinforced the "determination of unionists and the present British government to exclude, Sinn Fein from talks, even in the event of a renewed and unequivocal ceasefire.

Equally condemning the car bomb attack on Mr Copeland, Mr Ahern said the same terms of participation in the Stormont talks, particularly after breaches of a ceasefire, should apply to all.

Strongly criticising the British government, he said the present situation also demonstrated in sharp relief their political inadequacy in handling the peace process. Their failure allow participation in talks if violence, ceased "was a real betrayal of earlier statesmanship, on which history will not reflect kindly".