MIDEAST: Israel's Deputy Prime Minister, Mr Ehud Olmert, yesterday urged his own government to order a withdrawal from most of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, warning that it would otherwise lose Israel as a Jewish state.
His comments signal a stunning personal U-turn that has thrown Israeli politics into turmoil.
There was no chance of reaching a peace agreement with the Palestinians, via the "road map" or any other framework, Mr Olmert asserted. And so Israel had to save itself as an overwhelmingly Jewish democracy by leaving most of the territory unilaterally.
Those of his right-wing colleagues who didn't recognise the imperative, he suggested, were "living in an imaginary world that has no connection with reality."
Mr Olmert's comments constitute an absolute political bombshell. A former mayor of Jerusalem and staunch right-winger, he is the government minister closest to Prime Minister Mr Ariel Sharon, who has also been speaking vaguely in recent weeks about the need for unilateral action.
Mr Olmert said he knew his demand would radically shake up not only the government and his own Likud party, but all of Israeli society.
"We'll have to deal with all that," he said. "But first we have to determine our national priorities." The umbrella organisation representing Jewish settlers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip - most of whom Mr Olmert now wants removed - immediately called on Mr Sharon to dismiss his deputy.
And Mr Effi Eitam, the leader of the National Religious Party, a pro-settlement coalition faction, said that his party would not stay in government if Mr Olmert's thinking reflected Mr Sharon's intended policies.
Stormed Mr Eitam: "Olmert is essentially saying to the Palestinians: We're prepared to flee, just agree to go on pressing us a little longer. That's the most terrible thing to say."
The Deputy Prime Minister acknowledged that his demand represented a personal reversal: the borders of the new Israel he was proposing in what he called a "comprehensive" solution certainly did not mirror "those I've always believed in." But he added, "We have not been fighting here for the past hundred years, we have not been spilling our blood, only to lose Israel as a Jewish state."
He said his vision differed from that of those on the left, and specifically the proponents of the unofficial Geneva Accords, in that he insisted on retaining sovereignty in the Old City and did not support a return to the pre-1967 borders. But in seeking what he said was a demographic balance inside Israel of 80 per cent Jews and 20 per cent Muslims, he indicated Israel would have to pull back from most of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, dismantle all but a few large settlement blocs, and relinquish the sovereignty he had so robustly defended as mayor in many Palestinian neighbourhoods of East Jerusalem.
In his proposal, detailed in interview with the nation's best-selling daily, Yediot Ahronot, Mr Olmert proposed a more far-reaching unilateral withdrawal even than that recommended by the moderate opposition Labour party in its failed election campaign earlier this year. He said he was doing so because the demographics of the area were working steadily against Israel: Israel has a population of some 6.5 million (including the 250,000 settlers), of whom 20 per cent are Arabs. More than 3 million Palestinians live in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem. Most demographers believe there will be more Muslims than Jews between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea within the next three or four years.
"If I believed there was a real chance of reaching an agreement," Mr Olmert said, "I would advise making the effort." But since he did not think the Palestinian leadership would honour any deal - "even a Geneva-style accord" - Israel had to separate itself from the Palestinians unilaterally. Otherwise, he went on, "We're nearing the point at which the Palestinians will constitute a majority [between the river and sea] and they will forego statehood in return for the right to vote in Israel. On that day, we'll lose everything."
The idea of annexing the territories and deporting the Palestinian masses - as advocated by the extreme Israeli right to offset the higher Palestinian birthrate and consequent demographic shifts - was not only impractical but was also ethically untenable, Mr Olmert argued. "What moral right do I have to throw a man out of the home he was born in?" And there could be no question of claiming sovereignty throughout the West Bank and Gaza while denying the Palestinians' voting rights in such an enlarged state. Liberal Jews would be among the foremost critics of what would be cited as an Apartheid-style policy, he said.
Mr Olmert, who is also the minister of trade, is widely believed to be Mr Sharon's preferred successor. He said he had not discussed the specifics of his new vision with his boss. However, he said the prime minister was "grappling daily with the same dilemmas." Since his overwhelming re-election in February, Mr Sharon has been steadily losing popularity, and a survey in the Ma'ariv daily yesterday put his rating at a record low, with only 33 per cent satisfied with his performance, and 59 per cent unsatisfied. While most Israelis blame the Palestinian leadership, rather than Mr Sharon, for the ongoing conflict, an increasing number plainly believe he could be doing more to try and resolve it.
Aware of this, Mr Sharon has been promising to set out a detailed plan of action in the near future. Ma'ariv yesterday published what it said were some of the prime minister's own ideas for unilateral action, including a much less dramatic withdrawal than proposed by Mr Olmert from parts of Gaza and possibly the West Bank.
All major Palestinian factions are currently meeting in Cairo, with PA Prime Minister Mr Ahmed Korei attempting to broker an intifada ceasefire. Hamas, however, is opposing a full halt to attacks.