Global steel consumption will rebound by more than 9 per cent next year, recovering after this year's 8.6 per cent decline, which was less severe than earlier expected thanks to strong China growth, a global body said today.
China, by far the world's biggest producer of steel, will show an 18.8 per cent jump in apparent consumption to 526 million tonnes this year, the World Steel Association said. The body previously expected China's demand to fall 5 per cent.
In April, the group had forecast that global apparent consumption - which does not make any adjustments for possible changes in stock levels - would fall 14.1 per cent this year.
"The global recovery is stronger than we predicted in April. According to our current forecast, China will rebound 19 per cent in 2009 and 5 per cent in 2010," Daniel Novegil, chairman of the World Steel Economics committee, said in a statement.
Global demand will rise 9.2 per cent to 1.206 billion tonnes next year from 1.104 billion tonnes, the group said in its first forecast for 2010.
The recession slashed global steel demand deeply this year, cutting into earnings for industry leaders such as ArcelorMittal, but Chinese production has boomed as Beijing embarked on an infrastructure-focused stimulus plan.
But analysts have raised questions about the sustainability of China's unexpectedly strong growth, questioning how much of it is speculative demand versus end-use.
"Emerging economies will slow down 17 percent in 2009 but grow 12 per cent in 2010. Apparent steel use in developed economies that contracted 34 percent in 2009 will rebound 15 per cent in 2010. Therefore the World Steel Association forecasts that global steel demand will return to growth in 2010."
Reuters