Cabinet conundrum will test Ahern's mettle

THE Fianna Fail leader went down this road before

THE Fianna Fail leader went down this road before. In the days following the resignation of Albert Reynolds as Taoiseach in 1994 Bertie Ahern negotiated with the Labour Party for a continuation of the Fianna Fail-led coalition government and drew up a list of Cabinet ministers.

That list, containing six ministers from Labour and nine from Fianna Fail, was never published. The fragile pact which had been painstakingly reconstructed between the two parties imploded over the Smyth/Duggan cases and the attitude of Fianna Fail ministers to Harry Whelehan's appointment as President of the High Court.

But that was then. Before Fianna Fail's entry into opposition and reinvention. A lot of memories have become blurry in the meantime.

Mr Ahern doesn't have to worry about the Labour Party and its 33 Dail seats any more. Fianna Fail is 10 seats stronger after a ruthlessly efficient election campaign. Fine Gael has resumed the role of traditional enemy. It's a case of back to the future.

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But the template of 1989 doesn't offer too much consolation. On that occasion, the Progressive Democrats saw their Dail representation contract from l4 to six seats, while Fianna Fail's dipped from 8110 77. With Sean Treacy in the chair, the Fianna Fail/PD combination had a bare Dail majority. There was also a number of understanding Independents.

The chemistry between the party leaders was professional, but icy. Charlie Haughey and Des O'Malley were in the business of implementing policy and advancing their parties' interests. But the need for the Progressive Democrats to assert their ethos and to demand respect and high standards in government imposed a continual strain.

In spite of such tensions which led to the establishment of the Beef Tribunal, the sacking of the late Brian Lenihan and the forced resignation of Mr Haughey Fianna Fail's first experiment of coalition government lasted for three years. Until personal differences between Albert Reynolds and Des O'Malley blew it apart.

This time, Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney sang off the same hymn sheet in the run-up to the election. But the result was a disaster for the Progressive Democrats, who dropped or fudged policies to facilitate Fianna Fail and ended up with four seats.

Later today, Bobby Molloy and Liz O'Donnell of the Progressive Democrats will open negotiations with Noel Dempsey and Dermot Ahern on a joint programme for government. And the smaller party will attempt to re-establish its political raison d'etre, while demanding seats at Cabinet.

Some Fianna Failers are already suggesting that the Progressive Democrats can expect one senior Minister, plus one junior with Cabinet access, as part of the deal.

The Progressive Democrats would like two senior jobs, especially now that the Office of Tanaiste is going to be abolished and the party will not as of right be kept informed of material going to the Taoiseach's Department. But these are matters for negotiation.

Independents will also have to be kept sweet. In that regard, repeal of various sections of the Electoral Act might prove unpopular. The Act provides for State funding, in the future, for election and administrative expenses. And the Green Party and Independents would be loath to see its provisions repealed.

But that is a minor issue. Of prime concern is the fact that Mr Ahern will have at least 13 places to fill in Cabinet on this occasion compared to the nine at his disposal in 1994.

Back then, as he emerged in consensus mode from the leader-ship contest, Mr Ahern seemed likely to reappoint Fianna Fail members of the previous government. That would have given jobs to David Andrews, Brian Cowen Noel Dempsey (chief whip), Charlie McCreevy, Maire Geoghegan-Quinn, Michael Smith, Joe Walsh and Michael Woods.

The departure of Mr Albert Reynolds and Ms Geoghegan-Quinn from the equation leaves room in the new Cabinet for Ray Burke and Mary O'Rourke, for Dermot Ahern and John O'Donoghue. After that it becomes overcrowded and hard decisions will have to be made.

In the past, Mr Ahern has shown little appetite for hard decisions and appointments to his Cabinet will be a real test. He has the option of staying with the older, experienced faces or living up to the subliminal message of his election poster which promised a young leader for a young country.

David Andrews wants to be President. But so does Albert Reynolds. And while Fianna Fail would win a by-election in Longford/Roscommon, it might lose one in Dun Laoghaire. Another factor in Mr Reynolds's favour is that a nomination would remove him as a candidate for a Northern Ireland trouble-shooting role.

Mary O'Rourke, deputy leader of the party, has made little secret of her ambition to take over at Foreign Affairs. Her relationship with Mr Reynolds is, to put it mildly, poor. It would not be a good idea to have both of them dealing simultaneously with Northern Ireland matters.

In any event, Mr Ahern has insisted he will take personal control of Northern Ireland matters on election as Taoiseach. The following months are likely to be devoted to securing an unequivocal IRA ceasefire and the advancement on a political settlement.

The appointment of Noel Dempsey and Dermot Ahern as negotiators with the Progressive Democrats practically guarantees them seats in the new Cabinet. Along with Brian Cowen and John O'Donoghue, they are the most impressive of the younger Fianna Fail performers.

There are others around, like Micheal Martin, Eoin Ryan, Brian Lenihan, Mary Wallace, Sile de Valera, Iv or Callely, Willie O'Dea, Martin Cullen and Batt O'keeffe, who are waiting for their first chance in government. And the ambitions of Beverley Cpoper-Flynn, Scan Haughey, Eamon O Cuiv and Conor Lenihan cannot be discounted.

Further complications are provided through the return to the Dail of former Ministers Michael O'Kennedy, Brendan Daly and Frank Fahey.

With the best will in the world, Mr Ahern will not be able to satisfy the ambitions of his 76 Dail deputies. Tensions will grow in Fianna Fail. As the Progressive Democrats attempt to rebuild their Dail strength, they will target the seats lost to Fianna Fail.

Mr Ahern can look forward to fraught days ahead. The difficulties involved in the nomination of Cabinet members will provide a foretaste of things to come. But that's the price of becoming Taoiseach.