ITALY:Centre-left leader Walter Veltroni is hoping to pull a surprise out of the hat even if Berlusconi is thought to be a safe bet, writes Paddy Agnewin Rome
SO, IS the affable movie buff and friend of George Clooney, namely the ex-Mayor of Rome, Walter Veltroni (52), about to stage a truly remarkable turnaround? Or are we about to witness the last triumphant hurrah of 71-year-old media magnate, Silvio Berlusconi?
Fifty million Italians are called to the polls this weekend for a general election contest that, day by day, has looked more unpredictable. If opinion polls of two months ago are to be believed, then twice prime minister and centre-right leader Berlusconi of the Popolo Della Liberta (PDL) will win and win comfortably.
If more recent polls mean anything, however, then centre-left leader Veltroni, leader of the Partito Democratico (PD), may have closed the gap considerably. A 15-16 point Berlusconi lead could now be as low as 5-6 points, or even lower. Veltroni's vigorous campaign, intended to unite rather than divide, his insistence on under-30-year-old candidates in many constituencies and his constant highlighting of the age difference between himself and Berlusconi may have narrowed the gap.
However, a victory for Berlusconi remains the most logical outcome but it may be a victory of such reduced dimensions (especially in the Senate) that he could encounter the difficulties in the Upper House which brought down his predecessor, Romano Prodi.
As the campaign officially closed last night, both men were making optimistic noises. Under Italian law, the publication of electoral opinion polls is forbidden during the last fortnight of the campaign but Berlusconi treated his followers to the results of his own party's research: "I've had a look at the latest opinion polls and I'm absolutely certain that I am going to win and win well", he told Canale 5, one of three nationwide commercial TV channels controlled by his own Fininvest group.
Not to be outdone, Veltroni was also striking a positive: "This is a country that can always reserve a surprise. This is a mature country and I think it will prove that on Sunday".
By Italian standards, this has been a strangely mooted campaign. Yet, even the initial "fair play" that dominated exchanges did not stop many seemingly extraneous issues being dragged into the heated debate: the future of state carrier Alitalia; abortion; the role of state president Napolitano; a "call to arms" by Lega Nord leader and Berlusconi ally Senator Umberto Bossi; even the political choice (on the left) of star footballer Francesco Totti.
All these and more have featured in a campaign which, according to one TV survey (Sky Italia) yesterday, was adjudged to have been entirely "useless" by 75 per cent of the electorate.
And there's the rub. One of the factors feared by both right and left is the possibility of a relatively low turnout (83.6 per cent voted in 2006) from an increasingly disenchanted electorate. Abstention and the fact that parties which two years ago ran together in coalition, on both left and right, are now in competition could mean that surprises are in store.
On the right, Berlusconi seems certain to lose votes to his ex-allies, the Union of the Centre (UDC) and La Destra (The Right), while on the left Veltroni will lose votes to the "Rainbow Left" coalition comprising the Greens, Rifondazione Comunista and the Italian Communists. Not surprisingly, both men have focused attention on the concept of a "useful" vote, ie a vote for them and not their former allies.
The best intentions of both leaders to move the Italian electorate into an exclusively bipolar democracy, however, will be undone by the current electoral law, one widely seen as unsatisfactory. Passed in December 2005 by Berlusconi's government, it established a proportional representation system, "corrected" by a "majority bonus" for the winner. The fundamental uncertainty of the 2005 law, however, is linked to the fact that the "majority bonus" works on a national level in the Lower House, but at a regional level in the Upper House.
This means that the election winner is guaranteed an iron-cast 340-seat majority in the Lower House but could be in difficulty in the Senate where the regional factor, the six senators elected by approximately 2.5 million Italians abroad and the seven non-elected life senators, could produce a different majority. Not for nothing, Romano Prodi's government was brought down in the Senate last January. Not for nothing, too, minister of the interior, Giuliano Amato warned that it may take some time to arrive at definitive results, after the polls close on Monday afternoon.
Whoever wins - if there is a winner - will face a difficult task. Predicted growth of 0.3 per cent, low wage rates and record high inflation characterise the economy. The new government will have to deal with highly controversial issues such as the future of liquidation-threatened Alitalia, the need for electoral and institutional reforms and the fight against organised crime. Busy times are in store.