Ahern to meet Blair in Dublin over deadlock

The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, will discuss the political deadlock in Northern Ireland…

The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, will discuss the political deadlock in Northern Ireland at a meeting in Dublin on Thursday.

This was confirmed last night amid uncertainty about the future of the formal review of the Belfast Agreement much beyond St Patrick's Day, which leading members of all the main parties will spend in Washington.

The Northern Ireland Secretary, Mr Paul Murphy, and the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, will meet in Belfast on Tuesday to prepare the ground for Thursday's prime ministerial meeting.

Official sources declined to characterise this encounter as a "crisis" summit while acknowledging growing doubts about the prospects for political movement before the autumn at the earliest.

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The Taoiseach and Prime Minister will also discuss European Union affairs when they have dinner together on Thursday evening, but the chief focus will be on taking stock of the review of the Belfast Agreement and assessing if there are any mechanisms that could break the deadlock.

"The Prime Minister and Taoiseach will try to decide what to do next and examine whether it is possible to inject new urgency to the process," said a senior London source.

Mr Ahern and Mr Blair must determine on Thursday whether there is any value in continuing with the review. Dublin and London sources last night said the review would probably continue until Easter, but that the governments were concerned that little positive would result from it. "The fact is paramilitarism is continuing to undermine the political process and we may not have a process if it isn't stopped," said a senior Dublin source last night.

Mr Blair is under Conservative and Ulster Unionist pressure to withdraw recognition of the IRA ceasefire, or otherwise act against Sinn Féin over alleged continuing IRA activity.

Mr Blair and Mr Murphy have been resisting suggestions that the review process should be suspended. At the same time they are thought to be sympathetic to Mr David Trimble's argument that the present review of the operation of the agreement is meaningless in circumstances where both governments apparently agree that continuing paramilitary activity by the IRA is now the main obstacle to the restoration of devolved government.

Sinn Féin MP Mr Martin McGuinness's call on the two governments to work with all the pro-agreement parties in search of a "big deal" to marginalise "malign elements" has revived speculation that Sinn Féin might seek to bypass the DUP by reviving its negotiation with Mr Trimble.

The theory is that agreement between Sinn Féin and the Ulster Unionists on "acts of completion" could result in a rule change enabling the restoration of the power-sharing executive, or, alternatively, in fresh Assembly elections later this year. However, Mr Blair's assessment of his options is complicated by the apparent certainty now of a challenge to Mr Trimble's leadership at his party's forthcoming a.g.m.

The UUP's internal politics apart, the British government has responded warmly to the DUP's proposals for "Devolution Now" and would seem happy to consider proceeding by way of a "voluntary coalition" without Sinn Féin if the SDLP proved willing to do so, possibly "under cover" of the Irish Government's approval.