Almost €130 million worth of ongoing flood defence schemes are due to be completed in the next three years as part of a wide-reaching strategy to prevent the kind of damage caused by last year’s Storm Babet.
Three months on, against viscerally raw memories of the devastation felt by residents and business owners in Midleton, Co Cork, and other nearby areas, many may be wondering where will be hit next. And how hard.
The Office of Public Works (OPW) has been carrying out an ambitious scheme of defence projects, ranging from the large – the €39 million Glashaboy scheme in Cork is due for completion in 2026 – to the small; numerous schemes costing no more than €750,000.
Such works drag on. In post-flood Midleton many critics noted how long ago their own defences had been promised, while various issues from ground conditions to notably fickle planning complications can delay progress anywhere.
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But there is an air of urgency in the face of climate change and its knock-on effects, a less predictable yet more certain complication on an island long suffering from floods.
Early in the new year Met Éireann noted that Ireland’s warming trend has continued in line with global patterns. What might this mean for parts of the country where flooding is already less predictable? Those higher temperatures effectively contributed to what climatologists described as numerous flooding events, especially in the second half of the year. The picture has been further complicated by “compound events”, combinations of multiple climate impact drivers occurring simultaneously such as heavy rainfall and tidal lock or very high tides.
Things may get worse. Temperature change increases the chance of extreme weather events. According to Met Éireann, rainfall patterns are likely to change, leading to more dry spells but also to heavy downpours. All the time sea levels are rising. “As a result storm surge and coastal flooding risk around Irish coasts is expected to increase along with compound events involving heavy rainfall and high tides combined,” it said in summarising 2023.
Just over a decade ago, at the outset of its National Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management programme, the OPW looked at 300 communities with potentially significant flood risk. These initial Areas for Further Assessment (AFAs) were thought to account for about 80 per cent of properties threatened by nearby rivers and seas, almost one third of which were coastal.
The current National Development Plan, stretching to 2030, has allocated €1.3 billion for works. So far 54 schemes have been delivered at a cost of €500 million, protecting, according to the OPW, more than 12,000 properties. It is an expensive business but with plenty of upside. Officials put economic benefits of damage and loss prevention for these projects at around €1.9 billion, more than the entire flood works budget.
The numbers and statistics can become dizzying but the real more tangible effects of flooding have been clearly demonstrated in recent times. Speaking in the Dáil last month, Fine Gael TD and former minister David Stanton demanded answers on how Babet had racked up bills in his native county. “I understand that Cork County Council has made a submission to the Department of Transport looking for [roads] funding,” he said. “A number of figures have been bandied about, ranging from €23 million up to €50 million and maybe even more. We do not know.”
Social Protection Minister Heather Humphreys said her humanitarian assistance scheme established in the wake of the storm had paid out €1.1 million to meet 740 claims as of mid-December. Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien opened a €12 million fund for local authorities dealing with the after-reffects. Storm Babet had lasted just two days.
While many flood relief schemes have yet to come, Government claims those protecting 80 per cent of identified at-risk properties are delivered or at least under way. Planning and other delays may render the latter designation a little generous in its terms but the need to phrase it as such underscores the urgency many feel.
The OPW is candid about the system. “Flood relief schemes are implemented in five stages and are large, complex, multiannual projects that face a variety of issues and challenges, many of which are neither predictable nor within the OPW’s control,” a spokesman said.
Among these are ground conditions, planning decision timelines and a limited capacity within the engineering consultancy market. They contribute to a delivery time of up to a decade.
Under the national programme design work has yet to begin on about 50 flood relief schemes, though planning is advanced. The schemes that were selected for delivery first had been so on the basis of scale and return on investment in the sense of the numbers of properties protected.
As well as larger marquee projects – the most recent two schemes in Cork, Douglas and Clonakilty, costing a combined €53 million – the OPW operates a smaller non-statutory money pot for relatively minor jobs that can be managed by local authorities, costs about €750,000 or less.
It has currently listed seven major schemes under construction in counties Westmeath, Dublin, Cork, Kildare, Tipperary and Clare, due to be completed between this year and 2026, at a combined estimated cost of €127.4 million.
‘Psychological aftershock’ in Midleton
When it rains at night in Midleton east Cork, three months after the devastation of Storm Babet, some bungalow owners find it hard to sleep, says local Fine Gael councillor Susan McCarthy, a vocal critic of delays in delivering flood defences. “There is a psychological kind of aftershock,” she explains, searching for words to sum up the anger and long-term consequences.
Just before Christmas the engineering consultancy Arup was commissioned to examine the storm’s impact – it found the 35- hour event had been preceded by a month of wet conditions and saturated ground. Its report is replete with pictures of roads and buildings bathed in murky brown water; layers of silt, says McCarthy, proved more than problematic to scrub away.
Arup will now consider the performance of a proposed flood relief scheme for the town in the event of another Storm Babet, and what “suitable interim measures” might be taken in the meantime.
Cork County Council is similarly committed to such interim measures, although it was unable to provide immediate details.
But it is the bigger picture that rankles. Ms McCarthy recalls the “unprecedented” 2015 Midleton floods that focused minds on the need for a relief scheme, still unseen.
Shortly after Babet, eight years later, the project website said a steering group has been “continuing to progress the scheme as expediently as possible”. They are now ready to go to planning but, McCarthy believes, construction will not ultimately begin until 2025 and then take some time to deliver.
Since the storm there have been more landowner and stakeholder meetings, and site investigation works to help inform planning and detailed design. The local authority and Office of Public Works have been talking to Met Éireann about flood “awareness, community resilience and preparedness”, as well as improving forecasting for high risk towns and village. Given the past delays, however, it is unlikely anything will appease locals until something is in situ. Until then there is always the threat of another Babet.
“We were told [in 2015] that this should be a five-year plan and we thought it would be constructed by 2020,” says McCarthy once again. “In that time frame it still would have covered us for 2023. So you can understand why people are angry.”
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