Climate plan: Ireland’s emissions peak despite growing economy and rising population

Ireland’s carbon emissions, after years of sustained rises across most areas of the economy, have peaked, according to Minister for Climate Eamon Ryan.

Speaking on Wednesday after the Cabinet approved the 2024 climate plan, Mr Ryan said estimates indicated a 4 to 5 per cent reduction in emissions during 2023 despite a growing economy and rising population – double what was achieved last year.

“We are seeing Irish people and the Irish economy starting to go green . . . in a world which is burning, where climate change has never been more clear,” Mr Ryan said.

Coal use was down by 50 per cent and fossil fuel use by 80 per cent in power generation, he said, while wind generation had increased with solar accelerating. This would deliver almost a 17 per cent emissions cut in the power sector. An 8 per cent reduction in the building sector was forecast as retrofits were ahead of target, while a 27 per cent cut in nitrogen fertiliser use in the last two years would have a direct impact in reducing agricultural emissions.

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[ New climate plan lacks bold actions needed to tackle crisis, says environmental group ]

Mr Ryan added: “There are very significant developments happening where we’re starting to see things go in the right direction. We now need to descend like a downhill skier.”

He said, however, “a greater leap” was needed in transport, though EV targets were ahead of target.

The national climate plan outlines how Ireland “will accelerate the action required to respond to the climate crisis, putting climate solutions at the centre of Ireland’s social and economic development”.

Lacks bold actions

The environmental NGO, Friends of the Earth, said, however, its initial view was that the document lacked the bold actions necessary to address the climate crisis.

It details how Ireland is making progress, “but measures must continue to be implemented at greater speed and scale to reduce emissions further while ensuring that quality of life is improved”, it adds.

Environmental Protection Agency inventory figures show Irish emissions fell by under 2 per cent between 2021 and 2022 – when the economy and population were increasing. A reduction in emissions of up to 5 per cent is predicted for 2023.

While this is closer to annual reductions needed, it is significantly short of what is legally required in the overall 2021-2025 carbon budget and not enough to achieve a halving in emissions committed to by 2030.

The Government approved the plan subject to public consultation and a strategic environmental assessment to be concluded in early 2024.

With more extreme and frequent climate impacts, the plan warns “there can be no room for complacency, and that there is still a significant challenge ahead of us if we are to transition to a greener, cleaner future that improves people’s quality of life”.

The Cop28 outcome shows the world can unite to address the source of climate breakdown, and “sets out a path for us all to achieve the double ambition we need”, Mr Ryan said.

In comparison to many other countries, “we have successfully mobilised climate action in this Government. We are also at an advantage because climate is not a divisive issue for the most part”, he said.

Ireland may be playing catch-up, “but overall, we are seeing the ship is turning in our buildings, electricity, farming, industry and public transport”.

While this was nowhere near enough “as more programmes come on stream, I believe we can begin to decrease our emissions exponentially”, Mr Ryan said.

With more extreme and frequent climate impacts, the plan warns “there can be no room for complacency, and that there is still a significant challenge ahead of us if we are to transition to a greener, cleaner future that improves people’s quality of life”.

Transport emissions are set to rise in 2023. “However, planning reform legislation is expected to be finalised in quarter one of 2024, and major transport projects . . . are expected to accelerate, helping to encourage greater modal shift.”

The plan allows for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the cement sector and incinerators. As currently deployed, CCS is regarded as being expensive, inefficient in cutting emissions and unproven at scale.

It sets out new measures to achieve 5.5 million tonnes of emission reductions, which were classified last year as “unallocated savings”.

It also includes a new way of measuring emission reductions in land use and land use change – notably forestry and bog restoration – based on measuring activities irrespective of an emissions baseline, with the aim that they become stores of carbon rather than sources of emissions.

Carbon capture and storage

The plan allows for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the cement sector and incinerators. As currently deployed, CCS is regarded as being expensive, inefficient in cutting emissions and unproven at scale.

It sets out new measures to achieve 5.5 million tonnes of emission reductions, which were classified last year as “unallocated savings”.

It also includes a new way of measuring emission reductions in land use and land use change – notably forestry and bog restoration – based on measuring activities irrespective of an emissions baseline, with the aim that they become stores of carbon rather than sources of emissions.

Mr Ryan said planning delays were a major obstacle. “That’s our biggest problem. I’m not blaming anyone, it was a whole a series of unfortunate events in An Bord Pleanála in the last two years; a real slowdown in the output. That’s back up and they’re fully resourced.”

He added: “But if I was to point to one difficulty it is the fact that all our public transport projects are waiting in planning; all our renewable projects are waiting in planning and that’s not serving anyone; the length of time . . . We have a real acute issue in terms of planning resources and the speed of our planning and legal system.”

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