The politicians of Northern Ireland, not to mention the British and Irish governments, embarked on a journey into the unknown on Good Friday last. The Belfast Agreement provides a map of sorts, but, while some areas are well delineated, others evoke memories of the motto used by cartographers long ago: "Here be dragons."
There is considerable vagueness and uncertainty about the sequence of events in the aftermath of the June 25th elections. The general expectation is that the result will be known the following day - although it may be as late as 9 p.m. However, there is always the possibility of long counts or recounts which could prolong the process, even into the following week.
It would be difficult to convene the Assembly until all its members had been elected. If, as most observers expect, the count is completed in relatively short order, the first meeting of the new body will probably take place the following week. Tuesday June 30th has been mooted as a possible date.
It is understood members won't be eligible for payment until the Assembly meets. With a salary estimated at £30,000£35,000, plus £25,000£30,000 for secretarial assistance and other costs, there is considerable financial incentive to get together early. The controversial Drumcree Orange parade is scheduled for July 5th and the atmosphere in Northern Ireland the preceding week will be tense. Convening the Assembly may help to lower tensions; the two governments will at least be hoping it does not add fuel to the flames. Until the completion of legislation at Westminster and in Leinster House and the formal transfer of powers early next year, the Assembly will meet in "shadow" form.
No venue has been fixed for the first meeting but the widespread belief is it will take place in Stormont's Castle Buildings. This time the media will not be confined to prefabricated huts outside but admitted to the inner sanctum.
The Ulster Unionists and the Alliance Party want Stormont's Parliament Buildings to be used as the Assembly's permanent home. Damage caused by fire has been repaired and the old Stormont chamber with its ornate ceiling is now fully refurbished. However, it is understood the chamber contains no furniture. Part of the reason for this is said to be uncertainty over the structure of any deliberative body that might emerge from the talks. It is understood numerous seating plans were prepared. There has been some official reluctance to allow the electronic media, in particular, to view the chamber so far.
The SDLP would prefer an entirely new building to be constructed and has proposed the Gasworks site on Belfast's Ormeau Road. The party believes the new body should be close to the people rather than located on a windy hill at Stormont. Others would argue, perhaps not always without an ulterior motive, that the money should be used to build a hospital or school.
Sinn Fein also objects to Parliament Buildings. Some party members are said to favour the Harbour Commissioners' building in the Belfast docks area. The "shadow" period of the Assembly's life between July and the transfer of powers next year may give an opportunity to resolve this dilemma.
THE Northern Secretary, Dr Mowlam, is expected to nominate an ad-hoc presiding officer to call the first Assembly meeting to order and it is understood a member of the Alliance Party may already have been approached. The members will formally elect a presiding officer or speaker, who may or may not be the person chosen on an ad-hoc basis by the Northern Secretary. It is likely a deputy speaker will also be chosen. We may well see a row over displaying the Union flag in the chamber.
The members will also have to draw up a set of standing orders for the operation of the Assembly, which could be a protracted process. There may be grounds for hope in that the business committee of the multi-party talks generally worked well, even when other aspects of the negotiations went at snail's pace.
Most media attention will focus initially on the election of the First and Deputy First Ministers. If the Ulster Unionists are the largest party, most observers expect to see Mr David Trimble getting the job with either Mr John Hume or Mr Seamus Mallon of the SDLP in the deputy's post. From the moment the election results are announced, the media will be speculating feverishly on the number of seats on the Assembly executive each party is likely to get. These ministerial posts will be allocated on the basis of proportionality but at this stage we do not know how many ministries there will be.
The agreement provides for up to 12 ministerial posts, including the First and Deputy First Minister. Presuming that the latter pair do not take up portfolios, there will be a maximum of 10 other executive seats and a minimum of six. This is likely to be the first area of serious tension in the new body.
The Assembly is scheduled to take over the work of the six existing government departments in Northern Ireland - Agriculture, Economic Development, Education, Environment, Finance and Personnel, Health and Social Services. The UUP wants Environment divided into two departments, one for protection, the other with a development brief. Sinn Fein supports the establishment of a department of equality.
Party politics could well play a part in deciding the number and role of different departments and it would be remarkable if the issue were dealt with in the first week. The longer it goes unresolved the more the pressure will build up but it is hard to see how it can be sorted out until the early autumn.
Committees will be a significant feature of the Assembly and the chairs of these will have to be filled at the appropriate time. Some members may be reluctant to take positions chairing committees if they feel this precludes them from a ministerial post.
The first external task facing the Assembly will be to choose the areas for North-South co-operation, including those requiring the establishment of new cross-Border bodies. This will be done in consultation with the two governments, on the North-South Ministerial Council. Although it is not spelt out in detail, nationalists would argue that the spirit of the agreement requires the "shadow" executive of the new Northern Ireland administration to meet and appoint delegates to attend the North-South Council. Unionists say the executive is not required to meet until the transfer of powers has taken place. The issue is tied up with Sinn Fein's eligibility for executive posts in the absence of IRA decommissioning and is already the subject of considerable controversy.
Much will depend on the election results. If anti-agreement parties and sympathetic Independents or mavericks make up a total of 30 from the 108 seats, they will be in a position to cause considerable disruption to plans for implementing the Good Friday pact. Close attention will be paid to the balance of forces on the UUP benches: a high proportion of "hard" and "soft" Nos will spell trouble for Mr Trimble and for the agreement.
The number of seats each party gets will also determine its entitlement to executive seats. An anti-agreement member may feel inclined to refuse a ministry - but what if it means the portfolio defaults to the nationalist side? The Assembly is expected to model its operations on the European Parliament with one week in four given over to plenary sessions, the rest devoted mainly to committee work. Most members will have no previous legislative experience and at 108 the membership is relatively large, considering the size of the population. "It's tremendously representative, which is a wonderful thing," said one observer. Another, possessed of a more jaundiced eye, wondered how on earth they would all find enough to do.
