"IF THE Holy See has ever been shocked by events in Ireland, it's by the Bishop Casey affair. That was the real Irish shock . . . As for shocks, the church certainly got huge ones when Italy voted for divorce in 1974 and for abortion in 1981, those were real shocks.

"Then again, as far as this pontificate is concerned, the fact that a Polish parliament passed abortion legislation, that was certainly a huge shock, much bigger than the divorce referendum in Ireland".

The speaker is Giancarlo Zizola, historian, journalist and a distinguished contemporary Italian Vatican expert.

He summarises a view echoed by that small number of senior Curia figures who follow Irish affairs closely. Namely, modern Ireland holds few surprises for the Holy See.

When the President, Mrs Robinson, meets Pope John Paul II in a private audience in the Vatican today, she will inevitably be seen as an expression of the new Ireland, and for obvious reasons.

Not only is she Ireland's first woman President (significant enough in a church which still denies woman the role of priest) but she is also the first visiting Irish head of state who comes to Rome, not on a holy pilgrimage in the manner of many of her predecessors, but as the lay head of a modern, pluralist state that has recently confirmed that pluralism with divorce legislation.

All of which is not to suggest that the President will be greeted by a confrontational Pope in the Apostolic Library tomorrow morning when the two leaders sit down for a half-hour tete-a-tete.

One senior Curia figure intimately involved in Vatican-Ireland relations says that, in a diplomatic context like this, confrontation has never been Pope John Paul's style.

Rather than expressing dismay at the misguided ways of the divorce-espousing Irish people, the Pope will want to use the occasion to ask questions, to listen and to inform himself.

"The Pope will bear in mind the President's constitutional role.

"He knows he is talking to a head of state, not a head of government, and therefore, as far as family and divorce legislation is concerned, he will be interested in technical information, in the constitutional and juridical context rather than day-to-day impressions or political manoeuvrings," says the Curia official.

Had the Pope wished to formally express his disappointment about the divorce vote, he could have done so 14 month ago when the Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, had a private audience with him, just two months after the poll.

At the age of 76, and widely believed to be suffering from Parkinson's Disease (or something very similar), the Pope is ever less interested in day-to-day controversy and ever more concerned with the mysteries of the Catholic faith that he has so aggressively propagated around the world.

Furthermore, the Pope will clearly find much common ground with the President when it comes to discussing non-Irish issues in general and developing world issues in particular.

The President's African and Asian travels and her concern about starvation, poverty and human rights issues in the developing world have often echoed the Pope's regular expression of concern about the growing North-South, wealth-poverty divide.

In this latter context it is not insignificant that when the President entertains the Vatican Secretary of State, Cardinal Angelo Sodano, to lunch at the Irish Embassy to the Holy See today, also present will be the President of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, French Cardinal Roger Etchegaray.

The French Basque cardinal is not only a close adviser of the Pope but he is also a papal troubleshooter who has represented the Vatican's interests and concerns in some of the most troubled areas in the world including Bosnia, Rwanda, Somalia, Cuba, China and Vietnam.

CLEARLY, too, the Pope (and Cardinals Sodano and Etchegaray) will be keen to hear about the most recent developments in Northern Ireland and the future of the peace process.

Since this is a private audience, however, an official Vatican statement summarising the two leaders' discussion or, indeed, repeating the Vatican's position on Northern Ireland (a call for an end to violence and for mutual respect and tolerance from both Catholics and Protestants) is highly improbable.

Whatever further information we may glean as to the President's audience will depend on the subsequent loquacity, or lack of it, of the President herself.

Not that there is anything unusual in that, since Vatican reporters long ago learned that the Pope's visitors - be they the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, or the Cuban President, Fidel Castro, to name but two recent, celebrated examples - tend to be keen to give their version of the conversation.

Nor is there anything unusual about the President's audience being private.

Most papal audiences are private for the good reason that they are shorter, more flexible and more to the point than the official state visit which lasts half a day and involves extensive Vatican protocol.

In this context, too, an Irish Independent report earlier this week suggesting that the Vatican has in any way wished to snub the President by not offering Papal honours is entirely misleading.

No such awards are made during private visits which usually end with the Pope distributing rosary beads to his visitor and entourage.