Will Oscar follow in King's Bafta triumph?

Oscar-watchers were playing close attention to the Bafta awards last Sunday. Of all the gong-fests leading up to the big ceremony, the British jamboree has, in recent years, proved the most accurate predictor of later events in Los Angeles. This is hardly surprising – the two academies share some 500 voters in common.

So, has the massive sweep by The King's Speechinstalled that film as unstoppable favourite for the best picture Oscar? Sort of. Home advantage does come into play here. The folk at Bafta were always going to favour a film focusing on domestic events. It should also be noted that, most unusually for a film dominating an awards ceremony, The King's Speech failed to pick up the prize for best director. Those reading the runes were, in short, left more puzzled than ever.

As was the case last year, when Avatar ran neck-and- neck with The Hurt Locker, the best picture race may, right up until post time, prove too close to call.

Bafta may also sully its record as Oscar-tipster in the best supporting categories. Helena Bonham Carter, winner on Sunday, remains an outsider (the winner is, surely, going to be either Melissa Leo for The Fighteror Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit). And Geoffrey Rush, triumphant as George VI's speech therapist, will have to go some to beat The Fighter'sChristian Bale in the best supporting actor category.