Bruton takes the prize in battle of words with Ahern

THE `great election debate' between John Bruton and Bertie Ahern will have given heart to the Rainbow Coalition parties and improved their chances of attracting those all important preferential votes.

Although the Taoiseach failed to land a knockout blow on his Fianna Fail opponent, Mr Bruton performed with presidential style and appeared relaxed and at ease for much of the debate.

Mr Ahern was stronger on figures and on the handling of crime and he performed vigorously in the debate towards the end but, at that stage, the winner's prize had slipped away.

Mr Bruton began with an in built advantage. Minutes before the confrontation began, a Fine Gael political broadcast set the tone. Dripping with soft music and camera shots of Mr Bruton as Statesman, it showed him meeting with President Robinson, President Clinton, Tony Blair, EU leaders and Pope John Paul.

Then, when the image of a caring and successful leader had been imprinted on the retinae of viewers, Mr Bruton took the battle to Fianna Fail.

Respect for people was his theme. And in this caring, parental role as father of the nation he expounded the virtues of the strong helping the weak and of a sharing, caring society. He never looked back.

On taxation, the Rainbow would help the middle and low income workers most while Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats pandered to the better off. He charged the opposition of dabbling again in auction politics and he revisited the bad old days of 1977.

Mr Ahern rallied and went on the offensive. But his detailed figures got in the way of a broad appeal to the viewers. He appeared to be concentrating on detail, rather than the larger picture.

After Mr Bruton had been allowed to champion the universally popular causes of increased investment in education, in health and in crime prevention, he struck the lowest blow of the night. Targeting the taxation policies of the Progressive Democrats, the Fine Gael leader accused Mr Ahern of "walking away from his roots" and of "deserting his own people".

In normal circumstances, such an assertion would have struck no chord with Fianna Fail voters. But after three weeks in the uncomfortable embrace of the Progressive Democrats, who knows?

Maybe transfers are to be had after all.

Make no mistake about it, second, third, fourth and fifth preference votes are likely to decide the eventual shape of the next government. At least according to recent opinion polls.

Full recognition of this fact was contained in last minute appeals to the electorate by the leaders of the alternative coalition arrangements during the week.

If proof about the volatility of the situation was required, yesterday's joint announcement by Mr Ahern and Ms Harney on the shape of a giveaway November budget, costing at least £400m, put it beyond doubt. The package of goodies was aimed particularly at those lower paid workers who might have been scared by Progressive Democrats policies.

The opposition leaders also promised a 15 per cent share holding to Telecom Eireann workers and they undertook to reestablish the link between pensions and pay increases in the public service. It was the kind of auction politics they had themselves excoriated in earlier statements.

On the Government side Mr De Rossa massaged public opinion through the premature release of unemployment figures. A drop of 40,000 in the number of people claiming unemployment payments over the past nine months, with a saving of £140m, was paraded with satisfaction.

He also promised that, by tomorrow, the numbers out of work would fall below 250,000 for the first time in six years.

Appeals by the party leaders have concentrated on securing a tight transfer of votes between both coalition arrangements and in attracting votes from Independents and others.

Between the opposing camps, the Green Party was, like Topsy, just growing. And, as its support mushroomed in Dublin, it threatened to hold the balance of power in the next Dail.

Fifteen years ago Fianna Fail won 47 per cent of the popular vote in a general election. But the party was still short of an overall Dail majority. Those days of large blocks of popular support have waned for both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael in the aftermath of the formation of the Progressive Democrats.

Civil war based politics has effectively died. In recent elections, Fianna Fail's vote slipped to 44 per cent before dipping to a 65 year low of 39 per cent in 1992. Fine Gael's support dropped from the mid 30s to mid 20s. And the floating vote has become a phenomenon.

A last minute switch in public voting to no more than a couple of percentage points, could make or break either coalition arrangement in this election. Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats are going for broke.

THE Rainbow parties are hoping to harness the economic "feel good" factor which has elevated the Government to an historically high satisfaction rating of 57 per cent. And they are promising stable, responsible government.

In the race to ensure cross party support, they appear to have the advantage. Together for two and a half years, they entered the election with a formal voting pact. And opinion poll findings would suggest greater cohesion among their voters.

Only 29 per cent of Fianna Fail voters indicated a willingness to transfer to the Progressive Democrats, compared to a projected 48 per cent flow in the opposite direction.

In contrast, 45 per cent of Fine Gael voters were prepared to support Labour and three per cent Democratic Left; 33 per cent of Labour transfers would go to Fine Gael and 12 per cent to Democratic Left, while 25 per cent of Democratic Left votes could transfer to Labour"with a further 19 per cent going to Fine Gael. These potential transfers will be an important element in deciding the destination of final seats in multi seat constituencies.

However, given an expected first preference vote of 11-12 per cent in favour of the Green Party, the Workers' Party, Sinn Fein and other small parties and Independents, the composition of the next government will probably hinge on how those votes transfer once candidates are eliminated.

Last ditch television confrontations by party leaders have, traditionally, had little impact on an electorate already punch drunk with three weeks of party promises. But this election has already torn up the rulebook and it may have a few last surprises in store, especially in relation to preferential transfers.