Anxious Serbs get ready for electoral turmoil

A siege mentality is spreading through Serbia as Sunday's presidential elections approach, heightening fears that Slobodan Milosevic…

A siege mentality is spreading through Serbia as Sunday's presidential elections approach, heightening fears that Slobodan Milosevic will do whatever is necessary to retain power.

The state newspaper, Politika, has launched a vitriolic attack on the man who polls say will beat Mr Milosevic. And a Yugoslav general has threatened that the army will fight protesters who take to the streets over elections.

The last two weeks have seen an extraordinary effort by Vojislav Kostunica, the opposition challenger, who is leading in the presidential race.

He has criss-crossed Serbia taking his message to voters. "We win, everybody gains," say the slogans on his posters. He is seeking to sell the idea of an inclusive Serbia to all those who will listen.

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According to the opinion polls, he has scored remarkable success. Polls have consistently shown Mr Milosevic trailing. The latest - by Strategic Marketing - saw Dr Kostunica with 32 per cent of the vote and Mr Milosevic with 27 per cent. Thirty per cent of people say they don't know or won't vote.

These figures would force a second round run-off between Mr Milosevic and Dr Kostunica and in this, every published poll says Dr Kostunica will win.

What has changed the political equation in Serbia is genuine unity by 18 opposition parties that have come together to back Dr Kostunica, forming the Democratic Opposition of Serbia.

Many people are now deeply disillusioned with the regime and serious about the desire to vote Mr Milosevic out, says Veselin Simonevic, editor of Yugoslavia's most popular newspaper, Blic.

But Mr Milosevic still retains a hard core of 20 per cent supporters and has the ability to win over many more, even in these last few days.

The Politika attack on Dr Kostunica is described by one analyst as unprecedented, but effective. It says he lies about his forefathers, cheats on his wife - but only has affairs with young girls - and lives with 17 cats.

"Vojislav is stiff as if he was wearing a bullet-proof vest. He is narrow-minded, hair-splitting, stubborn, a stickler and boring. He is tense somewhere inside. Cold. It seems that there is no life in him. No trace of emotions. He is a man constantly on his guard not to show his true face."

The Politika article links Dr Kostunica to the West - a charge that raises ambivalent feelings in people in Yugoslavia. Many viewed themselves as Western oriented before the NATO bombing, but now are bitter because of the 78-day bombing. A war crimes trial that opened yesterday is tapping that hatred.

In the Palace of Justice, a row of empty chairs is in place opposite a panel of judges. Twelve Western leaders, including the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, President Clinton, the British Foreign Secretary, Mr Robin Cook, and the former defence secretary, Mr George Robertson, are among those charged in absentia. Former NATO secretary-general Mr Javier Solana and former NATO Europe commander Gen Wesley Clarke are also charged.

The charges accuse the men of crimes against humanity, initiating an aggressive war, using illegal weapons such as cluster bombs and violating the territorial sovereignty of Yugoslavia.

Sentences ranging from 15 to 20 years are expected to be handed down to those whom Yugoslavia blames for the 800 people who died in the bombing, including about 500 civilians.

The public reaction to the trial will be clear over coming days. But one of those most acutely affected - the mother of a technician killed in the bombing - accused the authorities of holding a "circus theatre".

Ms Zanka Stojanovic, who lost her 26-year-old son in an attack, blames NATO and Mr Milosevic. "We are accusing NATO leaders and domestic politicians as the ones who are responsible for this," she said. "Our people were not good diplomats and to let such a terrible thing happen at the end of the 20th century is a shame for humankind."

Tension in the country has been further heightened by a statement from Yugoslav army chief Gen Nebojsa Pavkovic. He said over the weekend that election day was "Dday" and that soldiers "will practically have to stand in the first combat lines".

"Power cannot be taken in the streets, that practically leads to civil war and we will prevent this," Gen Pavkovic said.

His words have heightened concerns that Mr Milosevic may win by voting fraud and then use the police or army to quell civil unrest.

Analysts say he will need a win in the first round. A former Socialist party member, Mr Milovan Drecun, a former war reporter with state television, who recently left to form his own opposition party, strongly asserts there will be voting fraud.

According to Mr Drecun, who still has many contacts in the Socialist Party (SPS), "Milosevic wants to win the poll with 2.5 million votes in the first round. No second round is planned.

"There will be manipulation, and if the manipulation leads to protests, he is preparing anti-riot police squads. He has well-trained units in the police for breaking protests."

Mr Drecun says electoral fraud will focus on Kosovo and the two electoral districts in southern Serbia that encompass the province, Prokopulje and Vranje.

The other area ripe for fraud, says Mr Drecun, is Serbia's sister state in the federation, Montenegro - where the pro-West opposition government of Mr Milo Djukano vic is boycotting the poll.

Mr Simonevic also believes there will be fraud. "They are prepared to steal as many votes as possible to avoid the second round," he says. "Many people expect a lot from these elections - and from that a rebellion over fraud can be born. If that happens, Milosevic will try to make a brutal attack and use shock action."

A whiff of that police action came last weekend, when three youngsters from the student resistance movement, Otpor, were jailed for 10 days for spraying graffiti on walls in the capital over the weekend and were allegedly beaten while in custody.

It was viewed as a massively disproportionate sentence. "It is a warning," said one student.