BELFAST BRIEFING:New research finds consumers more confident about their financial outlook, writes FRANCESS McDONNELL.

DEPENDING ON whom you believe, sales of sliced white bread and romantic novels are soaring as people seek comfort from the grim reality of economic life during a recession.

A sandwich and a steamy novel appear to be the solution to surviving the economic downturn.

If that is the case then consumers in the North must be munching their way through more than their fair share of loaves and becoming experts in the pursuit of love.

Because new research to be published today shows people in Northern Ireland are becoming less pessimistic about their economic prospects.

According to Northern Bank’s latest Consumer Confidence Index, last month saw local confidence rise to its highest level in 10 months.

The survey results suggest there has been a significant reduction in the number of people who are pessimistic about how they expect their financial position to unfold over the coming year.

Research showed a 26 per cent fall among respondents in pessimism levels.

More than 70 per cent of the people who took part in the survey also felt there would be no change to their job security over the next 12 months.

The results of the survey also suggest that fewer consumers feel financially worse off than they did a year ago.

The figures are surprising when measured against the backdrop of growing unemployment in the North and further contractions in the local economy.

According to Angela McGowan, a Northern Bank economist, consumer confidence remains on the whole “fragile” but the latest survey shows there has been a definite shift “in the right direction”.

McGowan says expectations that low interest rates will be sustained and inflation will continue to fall have had an impact on consumer sentiment.

“Uncertainty about economic recovery is making consumers cautious, but there has been some improvement over the last quarter and local households seem to be interpreting low interest rates, falling prices and other positive indicators as a sign that their personal financial circumstances will not worsen in the next year.”

McGowan believes the most important factor influencing consumers is still the local labour market.

“Should job cuts start to taper off in the next few months, we would expect to see a clear improvement in consumer confidence over the next six to 12 months,” she adds.

It is a pretty upbeat forecast given what has been happening on the ground in the North.

A brief visit to any of mid-Ulster’s struggling towns such as Magherafelt, Dungannon or Cookstown paints a rather different picture.

Latest Government labour market statistics show there has been a dramatic increase in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in these rural towns.

Mid-Ulster has experienced some of the highest percentage increases in unemployment compared to anywhere else in the UK.

In the year to June unemployment increased in Magherafelt by 222.4 per cent, in Dungannon by 194.9 per cent and in Cookstown by 190.8 per cent.

Towns such as these can ill afford any further job losses – a fact not lost on the North’s Economy Minister.

Arlene Foster firmly believes that the Northern Ireland Executive must do all it can to keep and retain jobs while also ensuring that the North remains open for business.

Foster has listened to what the business community in Northern Ireland has told her about operating in a recession and together with her officials she has taken some steps to provide real help.

The £15 million short-term aid scheme, operated by her department, is just one example which is actually making a difference. Firms who are in difficulty can apply for grants worth up to £450,000 to help pay salaries and keep key staff in their workforce.

Foster says 33 firms have so far applied for help and £600,000 has been approved to keep them in business.

She says not a single company that has asked for help since the scheme was launched just three months ago has been turned down.

It is, Foster believes, an example of how her department is making a real difference and helping as many viable businesses as possible to survive the downturn.

She is keen to explore how both Government agencies and cross-Border bodies such as InterTrade Ireland can do more to provide the kind of help that allow companies to keep trading and keep jobs in the North.

Foster is under no illusion that Northern Ireland is under pressure to win more new inward investors who will create significant numbers of added-value jobs to boost the local economy.

She says Invest Northern Ireland, the economic development agency, is continuing to support both local and inward investors despite the economic downturn.

Latest figures show there has been a 30 per cent increase in the number of offers made by Invest Northern Ireland in the last financial year.

But Foster also recognises the value of supporting and encouraging companies who may start with a very small foothold in the North.

In her opinion, in any economic climate every job counts, which is why she is working more closely than ever before with her counterpart across the Border, Tánaiste Mary Coughlan.

During the recent North South Ministerial Council sectoral meeting on trade and business development in Dublin Castle, both Ministers heard how InterTradeIreland last year helped 590 firms in the North and South grow their business.

Foster is keen to champion any organisation which helps businesses in Northern Ireland.

That is why she is going to be keeping a very close eye on any potential budget cuts that the Irish Government may have in mind for organisations such as InterTradeIreland or Tourism Ireland.

She is in favour of making “efficiencies” and dispensing with the “razzmatazz” which accompanies the cross-Border bodies.

But Foster does not want to see budget cuts that could restrict what these bodies can actually do to help businesses and in turn the North’s economy.