ESRI raises spectre of ‘painful correction’ in houseprices

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Pressure on home prices will continue until there is ‘a substantial increase in supply’, says BPFI
House prices are overvalued by up to 10 per cent, and an increasing number of households are carrying “elevated” levels of mortgage debt, according to ESRI.

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We start this morning with a warning from the ESRI that house prices are overvalued by up to 10 per cent, adding that an increasing number of households are carrying “elevated” levels of mortgage debt. In its latest quarterly bulletin the think tank said the acceleration in house prices this year had led to concerns about the sustainability of such increases and whether it would lead to “a painful correction” similar to the one that followed the 2008 financial crisis. As Eoin Burke-Kennedy reports, the warning will no doubt bring back uncomfortable memories for anyone who remembers the crash.

Aside from home prices, there is plenty in the ESRI report, not least that the Government may need to revise its spending plans for 2025 and beyond if the incoming Trump administration aggressively targets the Irish-based pharma sector. Cantillon also notes that the think-tank has effectively had another cut off the Central Bank for loosening mortgage lending rules two years ago.

Cantillon also tries to figure out just what exactly PTSB was saying when it revealed plans to lay off swathes of staff in the coming months.

Incoming US president Donald Trump is adamant he plans to bring in numerous tariffs on trade with other countries and appears to be laying the groundwork for a fresh trade war with China, but as Chris Horn writes in his column, that country still holds all the cards when it comes to the raw materials that the tech sector needs.

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From Apple Tax to Swiftonomics: 2024 in review

Listen | 42:10

As 2024 nears its end, Inside Business looks back at some of the big stories of the year. Everything from rising house prices to soaring corporation tax receipts, to Taylor Swift concerts and Donald Trump’s re-election as US president.

EU courts will decide the fate of the controversial Dublin Airport passenger limit following a ruling on Wednesday. Mr Justice Barry O’Donnell, confirmed on Wednesday that the court had decided to refer certain questions to the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), a move sought by parties in the case. Barry O’Halloran reports.

Barry also reports that new house building has stalled and looks unlikely to meet growing demand, driving already high prices up further, according to the main banking industry lobby group. Around 32,000 new homes will be built in the Republic by the end of the year, the Banking and Payments Federation of Ireland (BPFI) predicts in a report published on Thursday. The figure is in line with other forecasts and falls short of the 52,000 a year that groups such as the Central Bank say the State needs to get on top of its decade-old housing crisis. It is also short of the 40,000 pledged by the outgoing Government this summer.

The Central Bank said on Wednesday it plans to treble credit unions’ capacity for mortgages and business loans to €8.6 billion, following a review of lending across the sector. Joe Brennan reports.

David Bonderman, the billionaire who played a key role in the expansion of Ryanair as chairman and a major shareholder over more than two decades, has died. He was 82.

The cost of living crisis is continuing to drive people to seek out more bargains as they try to make their disposable income stretch further, according to a new report from EY. As Conor Pope reports, while sales are growing in popularity “there is a growing scepticism amongst consumers towards the real value of the discount or promotion on offer.”

UCD spin-out LaNua Medical has raised €6 million in seed funding to develop new blood flow technology that could help doctors more safely treat internal bleeding and tumours. As Ciara O’Brien reports. The company, which was founded earlier this year by radiologist Dr Cormac Farrelly, Tom Fitzmaurice – a former vice-president at Medtronic VP, and UCD biomedical engineers Dr Eoin O’Cearbhaill and Dr Sajjad Amiri, is planning to expand into the US.

Recruitment experts expect an ongoing shortage of pharmacy technicians and supervising pharmacists to continue into 2025 amid widespread dissatisfaction with pay and conditions across the industry. Ian Curran has the details.

In Innovation, Neil Briscoe reports on how a Belfast watchmaker is reinventing the retail experience for customers as it moves with the times.

Finally in technology, Ciara O’Brien shows how to get your tech gifts ready for the big reveal on Christmas day.

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