A bold initiative by oil producers to end a year-long glut and restore sunken petroleum prices stands a much better chance of success than initial oil market scepticism might suggest, analysts said yesterday.

Major oil exporting countries who on Friday announced sizeable new supply limits are counting on a swift rise in oil prices to make up for the lost export volumes.

Analysts and traders said the gamble looked set to prove a winner - even allowing for some leakage among the 10 OPEC and two non-OPEC contributors to the deal.

"Compliance, as always, is the key. But with a reasonable level of compliance I feel we will see a strong recovery in oil prices in the second half of the year," said analyst Mr Mehdi Varzi at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson.

"They've gone for shock treatment," said the head oil trader at a large European oil company. "This will allow a draw in inventories and bring Brent to $15 a barrel in two months' time and perhaps even to $18 by the end of the year."

Oil company stocks, tied closely to crude prices, will also feel the benefit.

Benchmark Brent crude rose modestly on Friday after the deal was announced to $12.60 a barrel, still below last year's $13.34 average.

Immediate oil market reaction on Friday was muted because the details of individual countries' supply limitations were not announced by the five countries that forged the agreement at a secret meeting in The Hague.

But a joint statement made clear that the distribution among the 12 had been finalised and had only to be ratified by a meeting of Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on March 23rd.