More critical approach to jobs needed

THERE has been a concerted attempt in recent months to, undermine and discredit the Live Register. This has taken many forms. There have been statements by various Ministers and briefings by Government spokespeople. There have also been several articles written by the former Taoiseach, Dr FitzGerald.

A common thread has run through all these statements: the public and the media should ignore the Live Register and the Long Term Unemployment figures and take the Labour Force Survey as gospel because it is accurate. The Labour Force Survey also just happens to be much lower than the Live Register and much more favourable to the Government.

Had a Fianna Fail administration attempted such a public relations exercise, it would have been pilloried by the media. The stockbroker economists would have been banging a drum and accusing Fianna Fail of cooking the books.

Not so for this Government. Only one economist to my knowledge has actually challenged this naked political revisionism in relation to the Live Register. The media also appears to have taken it lying down and has not really questioned this Government public relations stunt or looked behind the figures.

I do not know why this has happened. I do not believe that all economists are Fine Gael, Labour or Democratic Left sympathisers. Likewise, I do not accept the argument that the media is all against Fianna Fail and the other parties can do whatever they want.

However, I certainly believe that, in this instance, the same critical faculty has not been applied to the spin put on the Live Register as would normally apply in journalism or in economic analysis.

It has not even being picked up following the report on Ireland by the European Commission Directorate General for Economic and Social Affairs, which said the official Irish unemployment figures underestimate the true extent of the unemployment problem by ignoring labour hoarding, involuntary part time and temporary contract work.

The EU said this was not only a problem in Ireland but throughout the Union but in Ireland's case could add from 40 to 50 per cent to total unemployment.

The argument made by the Government is that the Live Register and every other measure that returns a bad total is flawed. The Government bases its argument on the economic growth rates, which, Ministers argue, have to be creating thousands of jobs for the unemployed.

To back this up, the Government points to the results of the Labour Force Survey. The most recent Labour Force Survey, for 1995, showed that employment increased by 52,000 and there were 190,000 out of work at mid April last year. This is 100,000 less than the figures reported in the monthly Live Register statements.

I do not accept this argument for several reasons. I do not believe that a once a year figure from the Labour Force Survey is more pinpoint accurate than an indicator that comes out every month. Moreover, if the unemployment situation was really improving, both measures should be moving in the same direction?

While I accept the Live Register has shortcomings, I do not believe that the measure is as far off the mark as the Government would have us believe. I certainly know from meetings in my constituency and around the country with the unemployed and their families that, if the economy created 52,000 jobs last year, the vast bulk of the unemployed did not get a sniff of them. Unemployed people have not seen the evidence of such growth.

I believe that the Labour Force Survey may actually be overstating, the level of employment. This could happen, as has been pointed out by an economist, if for reasons of self esteem, a person said they were actually employed when interviewed for the survey. This would be quite a natural response for those who might be feeling low in themselves.

One would imagine that if the Government was really perturbed at the inaccuracy of the Live Register figures, something might be done about the statistics situation in Ireland. At present, there is a great dearth of information for policy makers and analysts and this could be remedied, in part, by quarterly rather than once a year Labour Force Surveys.

To do this would cost an additional £2.1 million and that is not such a high price to pay to get accurate information for policy makers.

However, the Government is passing the buck on this one. No doubt worried that its precious Labour Force Survey might be exposed if it was done more regularly, the Government has decided not to introduce quarterly surveys until January 1997 the date having been brought forward this weekend from July 1997. By then, this Government will have ended or will be just about to do so. It will certainly be gone before the first survey comes out. How convenient.

Mary O'Rourke is the deputy leader of Fianna Fall and the party's spokesperson on Enterprise and Employment.