Ireland's growth rate to stay top of EU

IRELAND is set to remain the strongest performing economy in the European Union, growing a further 6 per cent this year, according to a new confidence poll.

The latest Bank of Ireland poll, in association with The Irish Times, suggests that low interest rates combined with improving economic conditions internationally, will underpin sustained growth in the Irish economy throughout the rest of 1997.

Carried out by Irish Marketing Surveys, the poll found that 77 per cent of Irish business leaders expected to report increased turnover in the current year, with 65 per cent basing their predictions on continued strong growth in the Irish economy over the next 12 months.

The survey, which reflects the views of 178 senior Irish executives in 1,500 firms in various sectors of the economy, shows that 43 per cent of companies are planning to recruit additional staff.

Its findings suggest that Irish business leaders are decidedly optimistic about the prospects for the economy for the foreseeable future.

The poll shows this optimism has grown substantially since its previous analysis last August. At that time 47 per cent of Irish business leaders were confident that the economy would remain strong. This has increased to 65 per cent.

The number of senior executives indicating that the economy is likely to enter into a more static period has fallen to 33 per cent from 43 per cent in August.

On the employment front, those predicting jobs growth have also risen and 43 per cent expect to expand their workforce. This compares with just 32 per cent in August.

On a more personal note, executives surveyed were asked about the prospects for their sons or daughters finding jobs if they were graduating from college this year. Some 90 per cent believed their prospects were better now than a year ago. This is significantly more optimistic than the August poll in which 66 per cent believed the outlook for graduates was improving.

Those in the export sector, however, proved more cautious, despite the fact that 57 per cent expected further growth in exports this year. Some 33 per cent of Ireland's major exporters believed export growth would remain fairly static over the next 12 months. This figure increased from 26 per cent in August.

This increased cautiousness among exporters is thought to reflect volatility between the major trading currencies and the strength of the pound. It could also be based on slowing growth in key European markets for Irish exporters.

Bank of Ireland chief economist, Mr Jim Power, said the results were consistent with anecdotal evidence from the various sectors of the Irish economy.

"It is quite clear that the economy is enjoying another very good year and growth of 6 per cent is easily achievable. The level of confidence reflects the very benign interest in the situation and also the improvement in external economic conditions," Mr Power said.

In overall terms, he said the survey pointed to a very optimistic picture for the Irish economy.