Yet another crossroads? This coming week, should - and hopefully for the 30,000 investors will - provide some soothing news.

The combination of failed deadlines set by bankers for a refinancing, further restructuring and redundancies, and ghastly financial figures must have sent renewed shivers down the spines of Waterford Wedgwood shareholders.

And they did, in very real terms; the share price, although recovered from its year low of 20 cents, was hovering around 30 cents this week, well down on the 12-month high of 58 cents and a shadow of €1+ in 2001.

Roll on next week when interim results and details of the crucial refinancing should be announced.

The refinancing has been portrayed as the more crucial of the two. Not so. It is the underlying trend that matters.

Any clues, you may ask? Yes, and they should erase any excessive despondency.

First, just look at the last published results and shudder. The figures for the fourth quarter to the end of March last were dismal, but the following unpublished quarter's results had to be even worse.

Here are some of the figures. Fourth-quarter sales of €207.2 million and an operating loss before restructuring and goodwill amortisation of €8.8 million.

The first quarter of this year must have been worse because of the SARS virus and the hostilities in Iraq. No figures have been released but sales are likely to have dipped to less than €180 million, while operating losses would have topped €11 million.

Now for that glimmer of light. Next week's interim figures (six months to the end of September 2003) should see sales of more than €400 million and an operating profit pointing north of €2 million.

Sales of crystal in the domestic market are understood to have held up well with numbers at its visitors' centre in Waterford down just 2 per cent in a difficult year.

Still pretty grotty interim figures, you might think, but the underlying trend is much brighter.

Extrapolating the second-quarter figures should be revealing. Sales then are likely to have been the highest for the past three quarters and an operating profit of more than €13 million could well have been generated.

Granted the company may well take the full hit of the cost of restructuring amounting to €28.5 million in the interim results, but the figures should point to a big turnaround in the second quarter.

The big question now is can this be sustained? Waterford Wedgwood's future depends on a number of factors:

the state of the US economy;

the success of its new Wedgwood operations in China;

a successful restructuring;

ongoing ability to cut costs;

successful new product development.

When the US economy sneezes, Waterford Wedgwood catches a bad cold but not a fatal flu. When the US is in merriment and spend mode, Waterford dances. Figures coming out of the US indicate a good deal of optimism. US observers, with great gusto, point to a return of luxury goods' buyers "like they were going out of style".

Figures from the top US stores show a big change. Most have been negative up to August but that changed in September with Federated showing a 3 per cent growth; May Co, flat; Dillards, up 3 per cent; Marshall Field, up 2 per cent; Saks, up 4 per cent; and JC Penny, up 1 per cent.

But what about the immediate future? The National Retail Federation has forecast that November and December's US sales will rise by 5.7 per cent over last year's levels. Waterford Wedgwood's products in the US - crystal, fine bone china and cookware - are bound to benefit. But with renewed terrorists' threats never far away, this has to be tinged with caution.

Also crucial, if it is to ever operate on all cylinders, is the transfer of its Johnson Brothers ceramics plants in Britain to China. Wedgwood had a team in China for 18 months before it made a decision to move the production.

With a 70 per cent reduction in production costs that is understandable and follows the route now well trodden by other international companies. There is a potential downside, however. China's substantially undervalued currency is fuelling that state's enviable growth and there is a growing pressure, particularly from the US, for a revaluation.

China is not bending and there appears little immediate prospect of a changed monetary policy. Even if there is a change, the impact should not be material considering the enormous cost differential. And Wedgwood is already gaining, with a boost expected to come in the second six months.

There will be a lot of pressure to finalise the restructuring in time for inclusion in the interim statement. This will involve raising €190 million in bonds to reduce borrowings. This would get rid of the debt-waiver, which gives the banks a say in dividend payments, which is a plus for the group.

Even after the restructuring and cost-cutting (the closure of the two Johnson Brothers' plants; the hoped-for 234 voluntary redundancies at Waterford Crystal; a successful conclusion on its claim of inability to pay under the national pay agreement), more pruning will be required.

While Waterford Crystal has insisted that there are no plans for further redundancies, the fact that up to 45 per cent of its output at the Waterford plant could be made for 30 per cent less in continental Europe will keep the pressure on for increased competitiveness