There was a palpable slump in mood following Ireland’s exit from the Rugby World Cup at the weekend. A similar one might have presided – might be presiding – in France but you get the impression that Ireland’s rise and fall at world rugby’s showcase event had bigger per capita audience here than in France.
But can such a trivial matter – trivial in the context of world events – as a sporting event impact consumer confidence and, in turn, the real economy?
Economist Austin Hughes, who compiles and interprets the monthly Credit Union consumer sentiment index, says the impact on sentiment of Ireland’s exit from the world cup is hard to predict.
“On balance, sentiment is unlikely to be markedly hit as, unfortunately, quarter-final defeats are seen as the norm rather than a shock,” he says, noting that Budget 2024 was perhaps the more pressing issue for most consumers and “for a smaller number, Paris bedbugs” might be more of a worry.
He believes confidence won’t suffer unduly from Ireland’s defeat. “A Rugby World Cup win (or had the men’s soccer team overcome France and Netherlands to qualify for Euros next year) could have encouraged some element of ‘feel good’ and boosted sentiment,” he says.
“In addition, Rugby World Cup likely boosted discretionary spending but this largely boosted the French rather than the Irish economy. With trips abroad set to fall back, domestic spending is unlikely to see a rugby-related pullback,” Hughes says.
“It would be nice to move to an environment of ‘Ireland expects’ in relation to sporting performance but we’re at least four years (or much more) from anything like that,” he says.
The latest consumer sentiment barometer for September indicated consumer confidence here dropped to its lowest level in six months with “the rebound in oil prices, further rise in interest rates and gloomier economic outlook likely drivers of drop in sentiment”.
The possible negative “September effect” was probably boosted by the prospect of an increased spend on back-to-school items, heating and the countdown to Christmas, the report noted.
