Bord Bia predicts future of food market

"Superproducts" packed with health-boosting ingredients, lower rates of childhood obesity and consumers that are willing to pay more for Irish food were all part of an idealistic vision of the future food and drink market outlined in a new report commissioned by Bord Bia . Laura Slatteryreports.

The Anticipating Tomorrow report says the food and drink market is set to increase by about 40 per cent to more than €15 billion by 2020, with the potential to expand to €18 billion by that time if Irish food suppliers can successfully meet new consumer needs. It predicts consumers will continue to spend 18 per cent of household expenditure on food even as their incomes rise, rather than the European average of 13 per cent.

The report outlines four scenarios that could determine the food industry in 2020. Under the first, "round the table", environmentally concerned consumers buy directly from producers as much as possible, supply chains are short and big brands struggle unless they appear to be "local".

In the "off the menu" scenario, eating out and indulgence is the norm, giving more power to restaurants than retailers. "Rebel" customers find underground ways to enjoy food with high carbon footprints.

In the "from the greenhouse" world, consumers hire personal nutritionists and improve their health through naturally produced and functional foods.

Finally, the "in the lab" vision of the food world in 2020 anticipates that "on the go" consumers will ingest multifunctional nutrient capsules, with food virtually indistinguishable from medicine. But the preferred scenario is a combination of these visions, creating a world where consumers buy high-quality products sourced locally and even grow their own super foods.

This environmentally responsible, healthy behaviour will prevail 80 per cent of the time, with forays into indulgence at weekends or on special occasions. The high demand for traceable and functional foods - already a flourishing industry in Ireland - means some foods will be limited in supply, resulting in more expensive produce.