Housing starts, the strongest indicator of future supply, surged to a new post-crash high in the first quarter of 2024, according to Goodbody Stockbrokers.
In its latest housing commencement tracker, the brokerage said new home starts jumped by 67 per cent to 12,297 units in the first three months of the year, taking the total over the past 12 months to almost 38,000.
“This is ahead of our expectations and current Government targets,” the company said. The Government’s Housing for All strategy targets 34,600 completions this year, 36,100 in 2025 and 36,900 in 2026.
“The surge in Q1 is likely to be related to the proposed ending of a temporary waiver on development contributions that was introduced by the Government for a 12-month period and is due to end on April 24th,” Goodbody said.
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“This particular measure has clearly had a positive impact in reducing the cost of development and has incentivised supply. This may have resulted in builders bringing forward their construction plans,” it said.
The company called on the Government to consider extending the levy waiver “beyond its planned end later this month given its impact”.
In its report, Goodbody noted the increase in commencements in the first quarter was aided by “big contributions” coming from both scheme housing (up 56 per cent year on year) and apartment building (up 107 per cent year on year). The numbers, which were based on the Building Control Management System (BCMS), showed apartments accounted for 41 per cent of the quarterly total.
The greater Dublin area (Dublin and mid-East) accounted for the majority (59 per cent) of new housing commencements in the first quarter.
More than two thirds (68 per cent) of the commencements in the capital were apartments, but there was a strong increase in scheme housing commencements also.
Despite the pickup, Goodbody said scale was “still an issue to achieve more ambitious housing targets”.
In a recent report, the company highlighted a lack of scale below the two publicly listed companies (Cairn and Glenveagh) as a potential barrier for the State achieving higher housing requirements over the coming years.
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