Both Israel and Hizbullah have claimed significant achievements after the biggest Israeli attack against the Iranian-backed group in south Lebanon since the start of the Gaza war in October.
In a pre-dawn surprise attack on Sunday, some 100 Israeli aircraft hit hundreds of Hizbullah rockets, launch pads and drones at 40 separate locations across southern Lebanon. According to Israel, the operation, based on precise intelligence, took place just before Hizbullah was due to attack Israel to avenge the assassination in Beirut earlier this month of Fuad Shukr, the group’s senior military commander.
Israel believes Hizbullah intended to launch hundreds of rockets at communities in northern Israel and, in parallel, to target the Mossad headquarters and a key intelligence base in central Israel.
Hizbullah responded to the Israeli attack by firing 210 rockets and 20 drones at Israel. Israel claims the projectiles were intercepted and that no military bases were hit. An Israeli naval soldier was killed on a boat off Israel’s northern coast, likely from falling debris from a rocket interception.
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While the offensive raised fears of a wider conflict Hizbullah indicated that its attacks may be over for now, though it did not rule out further action.
Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu stressed that although Israel foiled the planned Hizbullah attack, “this is not the end of the story”.
The Israeli military had been on a heightened state of alert for several weeks, and had been tracking Hizbullah movements and gathering intelligence. On Saturday night the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said it detected preparations by the Shia militia near short-range rocket launching grounds, and acquired intelligence that supported the conclusion that the Hizbullah activity detected went beyond normal day-to-day activity.
Mr Netanyahu told Israeli ministers at a cabinet meeting on Sunday the IDF “destroyed thousands of short-range rockets and intercepted all the drones launched by Hizbullah toward a strategic target in the centre of the country”.
He added that Israel was “resolved to do everything to protect our country, to bring residents of the north safely back to their homes and to continue to maintain a simple rule: anyone who attacks us, we attack them”.
The Hizbullah narrative was significantly different. In a televised address on Sunday evening the Islamist group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said it decided not to respond to Israel’s killing of its top commander by targeting civilian areas or infrastructure, and instead decided to target military sites near Tel Aviv, including the Glilot military base, north of Tel Aviv, where the army’s elite Unit 8200 intelligence division is headquartered.
He denied the Israeli pre-emptive strike that thwarted the attack took place, and claimed the group’s drones entered Israeli airspace hitting many targets, indicating that this marked the end of the Hizbullah retaliation.
The parallel narratives give both sides an opportunity to end the current round that has raised fears over the last three weeks of a dangerous regional escalation. However, Hizbullah has made it clear that the lower-level cross-border fire will continue as long as the Gaza war persists.
Hamas praised the Hizbullah operation as a “major qualitative response” that hit “vital and strategic targets” inside Israel. The Houthis in Yemen also congratulated Hizbullah on what they termed a “large and courageous attack”.
All Irish personnel based in Lebanon are safe and accounted for, Tánaiste and Minister for Defence Micheál Martin said on Sunday. Up to 375 personnel are serving at Unifil headquarters in Naqoura and Shama in south Lebanon.
Despite Sunday’s escalation on the northern front efforts to reach a Gaza ceasefire continue. The US’s Central Intelligence Agency chief, Qatar’s prime minister and Israeli intelligence chiefs all travelled to Cairo for renewed talks as Hamas insists on a complete end to the war and the withdrawal of all Israeli troops from the coastal enclave.
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