Gaza conflict places competing pressures on Egypt’s Sisi

Egyptian president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has warned that Israel’s Gaza plan to liquidate Hamas could take years and cause massive civilian casualties. During a meeting in Cairo with Sisi, French president Emmanuel Macron agreed that a “massive [Israeli ground] intervention that would put civilian lives at risk would be an error”.

They met as Gaza’s death toll neared 7,000 from Israeli bombardment following Hamas’s October 7th attack in Israel which killed 1,400.

Sisi faces competing pressures. Speaking to troops deployed 15km from the border with Gaza, he warned the military and the public to “rein in anger and outrage” over the war. Thousands of Egyptians have protested against Israel’s onslaught on Gaza, while the Egyptian army has not responded.

Egypt was the first Arab country to make peace with Israel, but the majority of Egyptians remain opposed to a settlement. The Israeli embassy in Cairo was the only foreign mission to be attacked by activists during the 2011 Arab Spring.

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Egypt is unlikely to capitulate to domestic pressures to exit the peace treaty, or risk Israeli attack with an intervention by the Egyptian army. Cairo receives $1.3 billion in annual US military aid as well as funds from the World Bank for social development. Money from the International Monetary Fund helps to shore up the crisis-ridden economy.

Sisi has refused to offer Gaza’s 2.2 million Palestinian civilians refuge from the war in Egypt’s Sinai peninsula, fearing they could settle permanently there. He has said that Israel can transfer Gazans to its Negev region where they can remain until the war ends and then return them to Gaza. Having absorbed millions of Palestinian refugees since Israel’s 1948 and 1967 wars, Jordan’s King Abdullah has adopted the same stance.

The Egyptian president’s policy toward Gaza is problematic as it is ruled by Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood which is outlawed in Egypt. Since taking power in 2013, Sisi has co-operated with Israel’s siege and blockade of Gaza by restricting Palestinian freedom of movement through the Rafah crossing in the south of the strip. The Egyptian army destroyed Hamas’s tunnels under Rafah which allowed the entry of goods into Gaza and eased economic distress. As Israel has closed the sole goods crossing where it controls traffic, Egypt has allowed limited humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza.

Sisi has been blamed by many Egyptians for the country’s economic crisis and for investing in monumental projects which do not benefit the population, notably widening the Suez Canal and building a new administrative capital.

Egypt has detained thousands of people for criticising the government and has cracked down on political rivals ahead of December’s presidential election which is set to grant Sisi a third term.

Washington has withheld $85 million in military aid over human rights abuses.