G20 summit: Shock wave of missile strike in Poland unnerves world leaders

For a few hours on Wednesday morning, world leaders gathered in Bali for the G20 summit and saw how the war in Ukraine could escalate into a conflict between Nato and Russia, which has more nuclear warheads than any country worldwide. After a missile fell on a farm in eastern Poland, killing two people, the country’s president Andrzej Duda said the Polish ambassador to Nato was likely to invoke Article 4 of the alliance’s charter.

This allows for consultations among the allies about an issue of concern to consider what steps to take. If the missile had been fired by Russia, it could have activated Nato’s Article 5, which says that an attack on one member state is an attack on all and allows for a military response.

“All the leaders with whom I spoke today assured me of allied support, inclusive of upholding all the provisions of Article 5,” said Duda.

China’s Xi Jinping avoided criticising Russia in public and Chinese readouts of his meetings with other world leaders omitted his warnings against the threat of deploying nuclear weapons in Ukraine

A few hours later, it became clear that the missile had probably been fired by Ukrainian anti-aircraft defence forces and the G20 leaders were able to breathe easier. But the false alarm highlighted just how dangerous the continuing war in Ukraine is, not only for the people of Ukraine but for the world itself.

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[ Nato and G7 condemn Moscow but do not blame it for deaths in Poland ]

Russian president Vladimir Putin did not come to Bali for the summit and his foreign minister Sergei Lavrov found few friends there. China’s Xi Jinping avoided criticising Russia in public and Chinese readouts of his meetings with other world leaders omitted his warnings against the threat of deploying nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Can China's relationship with the West recover?

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Xi’s return to the world stage after three years of isolation since the start of the Covid pandemic and his meeting with Joe Biden dominated the summit. The meeting restored the dialogue between the two most powerful countries in the world following months during which their relationship appeared set on an unstoppable downward spiral.

The two sides continue to disagree on Taiwan, human rights and a level playing field for trade and they are locked in a strategic, economic and technological contest. But Biden and Xi now appear set on a course of managing that competition and preventing it from escalating into a conflict that is in neither side’s interest.

The United States is the biggest supplier of weapons, intelligence and other military support to Ukraine and Xi is perhaps the only international figure with influence over Putin. If there is to be a ceasefire for peace talks, the improved relationship between Biden and Xi could play an important role in securing it.