Europe

Colombia’s first-ever left-wing president faces a delicate balancing act

Gustavo Petro’s narrow win marks a historic change for the South American nation, but he will have to tread carefully if he is to build consensus

Gustavo Petro and Francia Márquez celebrate after winning the presidential election in Bogotá, Colombia, on Sunday. Photograph: Federico Rios/New York Times
Gustavo Petro and Francia Márquez celebrate after winning the presidential election in Bogotá, Colombia, on Sunday. Photograph: Federico Rios/New York Times
Tom Hennigan's picture
Tom Hennigan
Mon Jun 20 2022 - 20:14

It is an indication of just how unsettled Latin American politics have become that the victory of the leftist candidate Gustavo Petro in Sunday’s presidential election in Colombia represents a triumph for the safe option.

This is despite the fact Petro’s narrow win marks a moment of historic change in the South American nation’s history. A former guerrilla promising to transform the economy of one of the world’s most unequal societies, he represents a radical break from a conservative elite that was remarkably successful in governing democratically even as political and criminal violence raged for decades. When he is sworn into office in August it will be as the country’s first-ever left-wing president. Standing beside him will be the lawyer Francia Márquez, a former domestic servant who is set to become the first woman and first Afro-Colombian to serve as vice-president.

But Petro comes to power at the head of a broad-based political movement, with executive experience from his time as mayor of the capital Bogotá as well as years of service in congress. His defeated opponent, Rodolfo Hernández, was a political adventurer, a right-wing populist with little in the way of a programme, a suspect temperament and no political base in society or congress.

In what historically is one of Latin America’s most politically conservative cultures, the 77-year-old social media phenomenon came close to surfing a wave of intense anti-establishment feeling to power. But voters baulked at the last moment and decided against following the dubious examples of other Latin American nations such as Brazil and El Salvador, where anger at the status quo has plunged them into volatile experiments in right-wing populism.

READ MORE

Instead they confirmed the region’s recent swing back to the left. It now falls to Petro to deliver on demands for greater social justice but without fulfilling the predictions of opponents that he will do so by trampling constitutional safeguards to redistribute wealth. Petro insists he has no intention of taking such a course of action. A key factor in his victory over Hernández was his promise to respect the constitution and not to expropriate assets.

Keeping these pledges will thus require him to build alliances with other political groups in the fractured congress where his Historic Pact bloc lacks a majority. This would send a powerful signal of his respect for other institutions of state. It also implies having to advance his radical programme of economic transformation cautiously at a time when high unemployment and food inflation are causing poverty and hunger to spike.

[ Former guerrilla Gustavo Petro earns historic victory in presidential election ]

Though voters have made clear their thirst for change, many economists have warned that Petro’s antagonism towards the oil and mining industries risks undermining confidence in sectors that are a key sources of state revenue. His plans to hike taxes on the country’s largest fortunes and unproductive land holdings will also need to win broader political backing from beyond his base. Otherwise he risks an early confrontation with Colombia’s elite, which, despite being out of power for the first time, will continue to exercise huge influence over the state and economy that many will be only too willing to deploy to defend their interests.

So as well as reaching out beyond his base Petro will likely have to manage expectations within it. Many of his supporters might feel this is unfair after he has just won a democratic mandate. But should he succeed in this delicate balancing act then he could ensure that in the future left-wing victories like Sunday night cease to be historic and instead become routine.