You'd be mad to take eyes off Armagh

Sideline Cut: Has their been a richer time in the football championship? Tomorrow Cavan and Down spark it all off up in Clones, four months of solemn and bone-shaking competition. And although the smart voice in all our heads insists Kerry will be there or thereabouts when all is said and done, the competition has enough glorious intrigue and a cast of about four other counties steadfast in the conviction that this can be their year.

Reigning champions Tyrone, Armagh, Dublin, Laois and Galway all regard themselves as serious contenders. There are major expectations within the borders of Derry, Mayo and Down. Donegal are the loose canon in Ulster.

Cork are facing into a critical championship season under Billy Morgan and will be spurred by the bitter experience of last year's All-Ireland semi-final defeat to Kerry. Fermanagh, under Charlie Mulgrew, remain a fast and brave football team. Louth are aquiver with championship fever going into next weekend's derby against Meath, a county that have been dangerously silent of late.

Although there are signs that the qualifying system might have peaked in terms of popular appeal, it remains a great liberating force. Memorable victories like that of Sligo over Tyrone in 2002 and Fermanagh against a seemingly invincible Armagh in 2004 mean that backdoor football days have a reputation for delivering the impossible. And it is fascinating to watch a county booted out of their provincial championship going on to cause havoc in the roulette of the qualifying draw. When we recall how sumptuously Galway finished the 2001 championship, coasting it against Meath in the closing quarter-hour of that weird September Sunday, it has to be remembered how abject their hopes seemed on the day when Roscommon kicked them out of Connacht.

After Armagh won the All-Ireland in 2002, there was a considerable body of opinion that felt they had "got lucky" against a Kerry team which fell asleep and that the Crossmaglen gang would happily retire to Paddy Short's bar and spend the rest of their lives toasting good health. When they lost their maiden championship defence to Monaghan the following summer, that theory gained further fuel.

But the memorable thing about Joe Kernan that evening, standing talking in the dim stone corridors under St Tiernach's Park as steam billowed out of the shower room, was that he seemed calm and fatalistic and almost content at the situation. Getting out of Ulster so early was like a tonic for Armagh. And they marched through the qualifiers much like General Sherman's great raid on the Confederate South, coming within a tantalising kick of a ball of claiming a back-to-back All-Ireland.

Ultimately, the qualifying system still favours the most powerful and most consistent teams. For the vast majority of counties, the back door offers the opportunity of a great day out, an unexpected victory that lingers in the mind for years. The old honour of the provincial championship remains the most realistic chance of silverware for most counties, and the realisation of that honour by Laois and Westmeath in 2003 and 2005 offered unarguable proof that the provincial system must be preserved. And there is a lot of prestige in landing the All-Ireland by the traditional route of going through the summer unbeaten.

Kerry would seem best placed to do that as all counties start their engines. The most frightening statistic about Kerry is not the 33 All-Ireland titles they have won but the 15 finals they have lost since 1923, when the championship went intercounty. That the county have only a marginally better than 50 per cent record in finals offers encouragement to the rest of the pack, but the flip side is that the Kingdom are masters at simply making it to the big day, come what may.

The strength and vitality Kerry displayed in sauntering towards another league indicates a team hell bent on atoning for September's disappointment. Jack O'Connor has made some significant positional changes and has veteran stars like Darragh Ó Sé and the indispensable Eamon Fitzmaurice in the form of their lives.

Just now all looks rosy, if a little too Cooper-orientated.

But Kerry are helpless against the vicissitudes of the championship. Last year developed into two separate divisions, with Kerry claiming Munster and enjoying a straightforward route to the final with wins over Mayo and Cork. Meanwhile, all kinds of fires were blazing across Ulster as Armagh and Tyrone embarked on an epic power struggle that left the eventual victor primed.

Kerry tried to predict the intensity of the final by holding training games against an 18-man opposition, but as Mickey Harte noted afterwards, you can simulate those situations but, until you encounter it, you don't really know how you will respond.

The system, as much as any one county, might militate against Kerry in this year's championship.

News that Tyrone will defend this year's All-Ireland without Brian McGuigan must have saddened all football fans. Colm Cooper may be the forward nonpareil and Stephen O'Neill the footballer of the year, but McGuigan is magical and irreplaceable. He is the main reason Tyrone won the All-Ireland last year. McGuigan's summer has been ruined by a broken leg, and Tyrone must also do without the craft and cool of Peter Canavan for the first time.

Mickey Harte has recovered from the unforgettable and grievous blow of losing Cormac McAnallen and still has a squad filled with great footballers. But McGuigan was such a beautiful conductor that it is hard to see them repeating their recent glory without him.

Armagh spent the league trying to convince the country that their goose is cooked. Maybe it is. They have run hard for Joe Kernan for the last four years and this is surely the very, very last great drive for this team. Armagh are methodical and controlled and lethal under pressure, but there is a question as to whether their style is still as effective against blue carat attacking teams. But it would be foolish to think they will go away without a bang.

Dublin have the mustard to retain Leinster and should go deep into the competition on athleticism and momentum and the shrewdness of Paul Caffrey. However, they are a frustratingly stop-start team and there is the fear that in crucial moments only Bryan Cullen and Jason Sherlock can see the bigger picture.

After their recent bruising league semi-final, Mayo and Galway will be gunning for each other in the Connacht final on July 16th. Mayo are a law unto themselves. Galway have enough attackers to blow most counties away, they have guys who know how to win championships and their rearguard is improving all the time. As the Led Zeppelin line goes: "There's a feeling I get when I look to the West . . ."

The feeling here is that Tyrone, gallant champions though they are, will be toppled somewhere along the way, and even their opening game against Derry has a treacherous look to it.

Kerry will be in the last four, Dublin might well respond positively to the inevitable hype, and the belief here is that Michael Donnellan and company have enough of the right stuff to return Galway to the last four. Nobody can call the eventual champions with any absolute certainty, although Kerry will undoubtedly be the popular choice.

Still. Armagh have been so unreadable and ordinary of late that you would be mad to take your eyes of them. Armagh for Sam.