Xaar rated way ahead of other juveniles

When Xaar surveys the chilly scene outside his box in Chantilly this morning, it's probably just as well he will remain blissfully ignorant of the weight of expectation that was lumped on him yesterday.

The Andre Fabre-trained grey's demolition of the Dewhurst field last October has resulted in the international handicappers rating him 8lb clear of his nearest rival on an impressive 127 . Allowing a length for 2lb, that means that, on paper, the Irish champion Second Empire would have finished about four lengths behind Xaar had they raced last season.

Allowing for normal improvement and maturity, Xaar should develop say another 8lb as a three-year-old, more than enough to land the Guineas, Derby and any other classic you care to mention. Said like that, it sounds so easy. If only it was.

Topping the two-year-old chart has proved a very mixed blessing when it comes to forecasting classic success. Too many of Xaar's predecessors have had their shortterm popularity rather than developing long-term credibility. Too many Boyzones and too few Rolling Stones for the taste of longrange punters. So, what will Xaar become. A Mikey or a Mick? A Kee' or a Keef? The pretty weak answer is that no one, not even Fabre himself, can know for sure. Xaar's supporters, who took single figure prices for the 2,000 Guineas seven months before the race, will point to how Xaar is rated 2lb higher than his father, Zafonic, and Zafonic proceeded to become one of the best Guineas winners in recent years. The mark of 127 also makes Xaar only the ninth two-year-old to go over 126 but, ultimately, what does that mean. Arazi and Celtic Swing made 130 at two and a lot less when it really mattered at three. A splendid adolescence doesn't make a wonderful life, and history tells us that, come April, Xaar will have his work cut out just staying ahead, never mind beating generations by four lengths, etc.

Aidan O'Brien, for one, didn't have the air yesterday of a man dreading the possibility of sending Second Empire, Ireland's top-rated juvenile, against the supposedly mighty Xaar. "All these figures are really just a matter of opinion. Only time will tell us for sure," O'Brien said, secure from a formidable position of strength in his Ballydoyle stables.

O'Brien has an astounding six of the top-rated juveniles that raced in Ireland in 1997, and 12 of the top 21. It harks back to when Vincent O'Brien was the trainer to follow in Europe; and now that the domestic classic barrier has been demolished, it's worth betting that 1998 will be when Ballydoyle reasserts its international influence.

Second Empire, in three unbeaten starts, including the Grand Criterium, looked the genuine Derby article, and confidence is starting to increase that Xaar's hold on the 2,000 Guineas too could be tenuous.

Saratoga Springs is the next highest rated of the O'Brien team, but probably the most fascinating is King Of Kings, rated a comparatively lowly 111 but still held by O'Brien to be a potential world beater. Yesterday, on the publication of the classifications, he was again backed to win the Guineas. Maybe so, but the suspicion remains that while the latent talent may be there, the temperament may not.

Ultimately it's all guesswork at the moment. However, the prospect of finding out in the height of spring and summer is almost enough to make January warm. For Xaar, Second Empire, etc, it's only beginning.