From now on, at the top of the Premiership, it is going to be a question of who blinks first. The Easter weekend marks the start of a six-week gallop down the final stretch which in all probability will see Manchester United win their fifth championship in seven seasons or Arsenal retain the title for the first time in 65 years.
In theory the contest is not yet a two-horse race. Chelsea may be seven points off the lead, but they have a game in hand. Leeds United, nine behind, still have to play the three teams above them.
Experience and statistics, however, suggest that Arsenal will do well to close a four-point gap on United, while Chelsea's main aim now will be to prevent Leeds finishing third and depriving them of a presence in next season's expanded and even more lucrative Champions League.
True, Arsenal did win the championship last year after being 13 points adrift of Alex Ferguson's side after Christmas, but that was only the second time in six seasons that the leaders at the beginning of April, United, failed to become champions. Norwich were the other foolish optimists, believe it or not.
Arsenal supporters may be hoping that the Champions League will prove a sufficient distraction at Old Trafford for Arsene Wenger's team again to steal through on the rails. Certainly United's approach to today's game at Wimbledon, where they have won on each of their four previous visits, will be conditioned by thoughts of Wednesday's semi-final home leg against Juventus.
It is hard to believe that, whatever happens in Europe, United will take their eyes off the ball in the Premiership. Success in the Premiership should never become merely a means to a European end. Now, as the Champions League dwarfs everything around it, United have, for several seasons, still managed to pace themselves in such a way that important Premiership points have been gathered during the mid-winter lull in continental competitions.
Broadly speaking Ferguson's policy has been to spend the first half of the season focusing on the Champions League while keeping in touch in the Premier League. In 1995-96, when United were not in the Champions League, they took 35 points from their first 19 Premiership fixtures and 47 from their last 19, closing a 10-point gap on Newcastle United in the process. This turned out to be a trial run for what has followed.
When Manchester United reached the Champions League semi-finals the following season they also regained the Premier League title by taking 49 of their 75 points from their last 23 fixtures. Now 32 out of 63 have come from the 10 wins and two draws achieved since losing 3-2 at home to Middlesbrough on December 19th. It is happening too often to be a coincidence. In the league, Ferguson's red army relies heavily on generals Janvier and Fevrier.
Only Arsenal have seriously begun to follow suit. Last season's surge to the championship has now been mirrored by the run of 10 wins and three draws which has followed the loss of a 2-0 halftime lead and subsequent 3-2 defeat at Aston Villa on December 13th. Wenger put that result down to temporary complacency. Certainly it appears to have had a more stimulating effect upon Arsenal than their conquerors that day.
In Arsenal's case, the end of Dennis Bergkamp's post-World Cup torpor has stimulated their challenge and if one man can deny Old Trafford a fifth title in seven seasons it is surely he. Yet it is hard to see the prolific partnership of Dwight Yorke and Andy Cole, which has so far produced 31 league goals and 47 altogether, plus the awesome consistency of Roy Keane and Jaap Stam failing to win championship medals with Manchester United.
