A vulnerable Manchester City gives Arteta a chance to reverse Arsenal’s fortunes

Premier League: Arsenal v Manchester City, Sunday, Emirates Stadium, 4.30pm (Live on Sky Sports)

It was not without a few strokes of luck that Arsenal edged past Manchester City in December 2015, clinging on at the end for a 2-1 win to send their supporters home dreaming of the title over Christmas. Mikel Arteta, deep into the injury-hit winter of his playing career, watched his team-mates contentedly enough from the side and a breeze of change swirled around the visiting camp. The previous day Pep Guardiola had confirmed his departure from Bayern Munich and the process to install him at the Etihad was, in reality, well down the track.

Given Arsenal have not beaten City in their 15 top-flight meetings since, taking a sole early point from their encounters with Guardiola, the symbolism is clear. Ending their two-decade wait for the domestic crown will surely require putting a stop to that run and leaping the one hurdle that, during their rebirth under Arteta, has proved impossible to clear. What would he have thought, watching Theo Walcott and Olivier Giroud decide matters against Manuel Pellegrini’s side almost eight years ago, if someone had told him of the hex that would soon be cast?

“That anything is possible in football and let’s change it as quickly as possible,” Arteta deadpanned on Friday. Arsenal have prevailed in two FA Cup semi-finals since Guardiola’s arrival and sneaked past City on penalties in this year’s Community Shield. The celebrations that afternoon in August were telling.

“It’s a statement to us . . . a marker to know we can beat Man City in a big game when it matters,” Aaron Ramsdale said at the time, implicitly suggesting barren streaks do pile on the mental load. Sunday’s meeting at the Emirates feels far more consequential and if, as the recently sidelined Ramsdale suggested, some of the fog has lifted there may be no better opportunity to show it.

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Because if not now, when? Arsenal have been competitive in home games against City during Arteta’s reign and have made progress from the bleak defeat in 2019, days before he swapped technical areas, that he readily says hammered home the size of his task. They may well have won on January 1st last year if Gabriel Magalhães had kept his head. But they are yet to face a City side that, from the outside, has the level of vulnerability Guardiola must offset this weekend.

If Arsenal can overpower City in midfield, possibilities begin to bloom. Kevin De Bruyne’s absence has long been known but Rodri’s suspension has potential to change the outlook. Given Ilkay Gündogan has swapped the northwest for Barcelona, the entire engine room that propelled City past rivals who could not last the pace in 2022-23 will be missing. Arsenal’s has changed too but, with Declan Rice patrolling, there is a sense of security they had never quite attained in the past.

“Physicality is something you need in the league,” Arteta said. “You need to be one of the most powerful teams in the league, that is for sure, and you need to match that up.” Brute force becomes a fine, crucial detail. “You need the players who stand and make it count,” he continued. “Duels are a big thing in those games. It goes either way, one way or the other.”

Nine months ago Guardiola opted for a more direct, robust approach in this fixture and came away with a 3-1 win. But, similarly to the previous year, Arsenal might have earned more had their early verve been matched by a ruthless edge.

The frustration bubbles up in Arteta when he remembers opportunities missed. “When we played them here there were many, many moments when we were much better than them but we ended up giving the game away,” he said. There is little doubt he believes Arsenal are a few tweaks from slaying the ghost. Rice’s intelligence and stature, which might be accompanied by a return for Thomas Partey, should provide a reliable foundation. City struggled without Rodri in falling to a surprise reverse at Wolves, which gave the notional chasing pack an early-season gift when obituaries for the title race were already being written in pencil. The potential to expose them in transitions was laid bare.

Arteta will, then, be praying Bukayo Saka is passed fit to deal out his special brand of torment when spaces open up. Saka’s durability is, in many ways, his manager’s weakness: for all the talk of 70-game seasons there is no doubt he needs a rest and Arsenal hope England are on message in the forthcoming international break. It would be no surprise to see him pulled out of Gareth Southgate’s squad but nor would anyone be shocked to see him patched up and tasked with an hour’s crack at City. Any position of strength in which Arsenal find themselves would be hugely diminished if Saka has to look on, which itself is a sign that Arteta’s squad still has obvious holes.

Pre-match games of cat and mouse have become Arteta’s staple: take his injury updates, flip them on their head and you might come up with something close to the list of players lining up. The capacity to shock when teamsheets are handed over becomes even more hard won when the managers share such familiarity. Guardiola will want to avoid a repeat of Molineux and Arteta, asked when his friend last did something that surprised him, thought at length before recalling the decision to play Bernardo Silva at left-back in that March meeting.

“Probably what he didn’t do: I expected him to do something very different with Bernardo and he didn’t do it,” he said. “He [changes things] in big moments and in big games, he’s done it this season against different opponents. They can change it, not only before the game, they can do it during the game or at half-time. That’s the strength of a team that can dominate these things.”

What Arteta did not mention was that Silva, given the runaround by Saka, was moved further forward after an hour with the score 1-1. But Guardiola will be expected to devise something that tilts the balance this time and it says plenty that he may have to confound if Arsenal are to be restrained.

For Arteta’s players, this is a chance to shake off any baggage for good. He pointed out that Arsenal have, in recent years, put to rest hoodoos at Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge; what the statistics he listed lacked in accuracy, they made up for in pertinence. “We’ve done it, so let’s change it,” he said of those watershed moments. Reversing their fortunes against City now could, as he surely knows, change everything.