England hope Borthwick can emulate his role in Japan’s 2015 win over South Africa

Maybe everyone is obsessing about the wrong Rugby World Cup. Of course it is tempting to fixate on the 2019 final when South Africa’s “Bomb Squad” detonated England’s hopes and dreams but in certain respects it was a spectacular one-off. Those English supporters seeking a more relevant historical precedent might just be better off casting their minds back to a sunny day in Brighton in 2015.

No one, as now, thought South Africa could possibly lose on that Saturday afternoon in September. They did not take into account Japan’s bright young forwards coach, one Steve Borthwick, who had been plotting the Springboks’ downfall for months. From the opening minute South Africa’s fans could scarcely believe their eyes. Rarely, if ever, has a supposedly underdog pack displayed such worker-ant efficiency, technical accuracy and perpetual version.

In the aftermath of this “Brighton Miracle”, Japan’s head coach, Eddie Jones, was duly hailed as a coaching genius. When we spoke last December for a retrospective book chapter on that famous game, however, he made clear that much of the credit lay elsewhere. “Steve’s role in that team was absolutely outstanding. He created a lineout that could compete at a world level even though the tallest guy we had was 6ft 3in.”

And now here we are again with many of the same ingredients in place: a confident South Africa, an unfancied opponent and the relentlessly driven, hard-working Borthwick. It does not necessarily mean the “Miracle de Saint-Denis” awaits but perhaps Rassie Erasmus should break off from stirring the media pot and ponder afresh what exactly is heading his way.

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England’s team sheet, for a start, contains a good deal of logic. The return of Freddie Steward as the starting full-back was always likely regardless of Marcus Smith’s availability. South Africa will go to the air regularly and look for an aerial contest, for which Steward is well suited. Up front, the inclusion of George Martin in place of his Leicester clubmate Ollie Chessum and Joe Marler’s selection ahead of Ellis Genge is clearly an attempt to try to stiffen the English scrummage.

It is also a team designed to adhere to the Borthwick mantra: stay in the fight for as long as possible, no matter what. In many ways, too, this is a less problematic type of fixture for England than France would have been. There is pace and subtlety in the Bok backline but no one is in any doubt whatsoever which areas they will primarily be targeting. If the English foundations cannot stand firm, as they found in Yokohama, the rest will be largely irrelevant.

So far so basic. But is it just possible England have been specifically plotting for this game for months? They were never going to say so publicly but, given their favourable draw, there was always a decent chance of making a semi-final against either France or South Africa. As long ago as July, when they were slogging away in the heat of Verona to improve their fitness, the goal of being ready to soak up pressure in the final 20 minutes of a big game against the Boks was among the specific scenarios mentioned.

Borthwick, whose squad have now won five wins on the spin, will also be well aware that England have won four men’s Rugby World Cup semi-finals in their history and, in the process, scored a princely total of three tries. Rack up a steady stream of penalties and drop-goals this weekend and who knows? What if they can stand defensively tall and the high-leaping Joe Marchant can rise above South Africa’s two diminutive wings? What if Tom Curry can ruffle Manie Libbok’s composure? What if it rains, as it could well do, and the scrums become a bit of a lottery? Suddenly a proud, cussed English side might prove distinctly awkward to knock over.

The odds on a possible upset shorten a little further, moreover, when you factor in that the highly rated Aled Walters, the strength and conditioning guru who helped South Africa to their 2019 title, is now working in the red rose corner, England are still priced at 14-1 with Betfair to win the World Cup but good luck telling England’s most eager forward, Ben Earl, there is no point in him turning up.

The in-form Earl will be giving away 18kg in weight compared to his opposite number Duane Vermeulen but, attitude wise, he is convinced Borthwick’s England will lack for nothing. “We’re our own team. Although we kind of feel we’ve been through the mill over the last couple of months, we’re the kind of team that doesn’t hold too much baggage. We feel like we’re a new team, we feel like we’re only at the beginning of our journey. It’s a World Cup semi-final. It’s sink or swim. Let’s hope I swim.”

As ever Borthwick was more circumspect with his language but, in between the deliberate forward prods, there was the occasional defiant flick off the pads. “I also think we’ve got a pretty strong team – and we’ve got a pretty strong bench,” he reiterated. Booming Churchillian rhetoric will never be his style but, hidden away from prying eyes, there will most definitely be a cunning plan. – Guardian