Kerry should shade it

The biggest attraction of the GAA season takes place in Croke Park this weekend. Despite the drawing-power of Clare's hurlers - which is expected to help fill Thurles to capacity this afternoon - tomorrow's Bank of Ireland All-Ireland football semi-final will be seen by a sell-out crowd at headquarters.

It is easy to understand the status of the fixture. Notwithstanding Galway's unexpectedly impressive victory over Derry a week ago, the common perception is that the winners of this weekend's semi-final will go into next month's final as favourites. Whereas things mightn't work out as straightforwardly as that, there is no arguing with the credentials of tomorrow's teams.

Kerry are All-Ireland champions and Kildare have won a first Leinster title in 42 years with a provincial campaign that answered many of the questions which have hovered over the county this decade. Their longawaited success was built on victories over Dublin and Meath who between them have 20 of the last 25 Leinster titles as well as the province's only football All-Irelands this decade.

Since emerging in recent years, Kildare have brought huge crowds with them and created great atmosphere. The slow evolution of performances to match this support has created a sense of anticipation around the county and the hype surrounding their All-Ireland debut was always going to be deafening - even without the additional factors of meeting the defending champions and the angle bestowed by Mick O'Dwyer.

Kerry manager Paidi O Se could be forgiven for preferring different opponents to ones managed by his erstwhile mentor. O'Dwyer has the advantage of familiarity with the Kerry players as well as - with his fellow selector and Kerryman, Pat McCarthy - a knowledge of their manager. The advantage can be overplayed given Kildare's high profile over the years, but it is an uneasy thought for O Se.

In the eight years since he first became involved with Kildare, O'Dwyer must have had darker moments when despair wasn't far from his mind. But equally there has been the evident glimmer of hope that persuaded him to return to the county in 1996. Since then the steadily rising graph of Kildare's performances has rewarded that optimism.

The incremental move from contenders to champions has been based on a sound defence which excelled in the tense matches against Dublin and Offaly. Centrefield has been more mixed, impressive against Dublin but subdued by Meath. And as ever, there has been frustration up front with chances going a-begging, however, the forwards did produce the killer touch against Meath. As befits a successful team, O'Dwyer's selections have been consistent all season and the team will be comfortably familiar.

So far so good. The question for tomorrow relates to how successfully these positive attributes can be reproduced. There will be confidence that the defence can hold its own, that centrefield can improve. But can the forwards pick off sufficient scores?

Kerry's defence hasn't been hectic this year. In fairness to the half backs, Liam Flaherty in particular, the problem has been more on the inner line. But Kerry still won't like Kildare running at them. The full backs will have to decide what to do about their former colleague Karl O'Dwyer, son of Kildare's manager, who has played a deep-lying role all summer and to good effect.

Martin Lynch has been achieving more in the corner this season with the weight of expectation more reasonably distributed elsewhere. Although prone to being distracted, he cropped up to lay off the ball for Kildare's decisive goal in the Leinster final. He has also been drawing fouls at a rate which Padraig Gravin has turned to good account. Cork's Alan O'Regan showed the damage a big man could do against Kerry's full-back line. Kildare have a similar option on the bench - right down to his being from Cork - with Brian Murphy who scored the goal against Meath from full forward.

Centrefield isn't likely to be decisive. Both teams have selected wing forwards - Kildare's Dermot Earley and the recalled William Kirby - who have extracurricular duties in the middle. Suitably congested, the area probably won't throw up an emphatic winner despite the respective performances of Niall Buckley and Dara O Se at Croke Park last year.

Central to this match will be the clash between Kerry's forwards and the Kildare defence. The champions' attack have looked a better-balanced unit than last year but were more impressive against Cork than in the Munster final with Tipperary. Maurice Fitzgerald showed signs of re-establishing his dominant position in the attack with his performance in the latter match but tomorrow he comes face-to-face with a man who played well on him in a challenge match earlier this year.

Brian Lacey has been the most impressive of Kildare's immigrant workers. The Tipperary man already looks a shoo-in for the right corner-back All Star. His suitability for marking Fitzgerald is appreciated in Kerry to the extent that one opinion in the county has it that if Lacey had stayed put, Tipperary would be in the All-Ireland semi-final tomorrow.

Dara O Cinneide has had a new lease of effectiveness at centre forward but Glen Ryan represents his biggest challenge this season. Mike Frank Russell may have an edge in his corner, but elsewhere there is a competitive feel to the one-on-one contests at this end of the field.

Kerry's forwards look marginally more likely to make more out of fewer chances than their Kildare counterparts. And the belief here is that whatever total the champions manage will be enough.