Jim McGuinness: Jack O’Connor knows Kerry need to be much more defensive to win this final

And then there were two. As the curtain falls on the 2023 championship, the final act comes down to Dublin and Kerry. This year’s All-Ireland final is seen by some as a nod to tradition, but it is also cold hard proof of Dublin and Kerry’s pragmatism in evolving with the game.

The All-Ireland SFC final is the biggest day in the Irish sporting calendar, when for a few hours the nation stops to watch the drama unfold. For me it is an event that transcends sport, it calls to our cultural and national identity.

But all that greater world stuff has little relevance inside the Dublin or Kerry dressingrooms this week.

For both set-ups, there is no shortage of things to manage between semi-final and final. The first is training, which can be a minefield. Last weekend would have been the final chance for players to make a claim for inclusion by performing during the in-house match.

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Managers need to be very careful with players 16-26 on the panel, because they are so desperate to feature that they tear into those matches and there is always a risk of injury. They must also be wary of anybody carrying a knock from the semi-final, because all players will make themselves available for a final, even if they are not 100 per cent fit.

Then there are all the tactical decisions and matchups to be decided upon, not to mention trying to control the hype, sort out travel, tickets, hotels and suits, and attempting to manage expectations.

More importantly, you try to find out as much as you can about the opposition, you want to know what they do, how do they do it, when do they do it and what players do it most.

Managing the media is also part of the game. Both teams had their press days last week and you can be sure every word uttered will be pored over by the opposition, because you are looking for any kind of nugget that might help your cause.

When Jack O’Connor spoke about us after 2012, he mentioned how he would have got ‘bata agus bóthar’ if he had played how Donegal did. Well, they are doing something similar now in every game

Managers speaking in those moments are not talking to a journalist, they are really talking directly to the opposition camp.

It was in that context I read Jack O’Connor’s comments with interest. “I’m sure both sides will be trying to batten down the hatches a bit better than we certainly were doing against Derry, but I’d expect it to be a pretty open enough game,” he said.

For me that is very much code for, ‘We’re going to be much more defensive than we were in the semi-final’, while in the same sentence encouraging Dublin to play an open game.

He continued: “There’s great tradition between the two teams. A tradition of playing positive football. I can’t see that changing.”

It’s almost like Jack is trying to bait Dublin to play an open brand of football because of the “tradition”, yet behind the scenes he knows Kerry will need to be much more defensive to win this final.

The mind-games travel both directions, of course. During Dublin’s media day, Dessie Farrell was asked if it was easier to prepare for Kerry than it might have been for Derry.

“It actually is,” said Farrell. “Because brilliant and all as they are, there’s a more traditional approach to their set-up than Derry.”

The reality is that in recent seasons both Dublin and Kerry have regularly defended with 15 players back themselves.

In fact, that very element of the game was central to Kerry winning last year’s All-Ireland. Paddy Tally’s role was much lauded, he understood defensive football, brought a structure to Kerry’s play and created a much more cohesive unit, much more connected, much harder to break down and ultimately made Kerry much harder to play against.

Also, looking at Kerry’s attack you could say they are playing with three attacking forwards and three defensively-minded forwards in Adrian Spillane, Dara Moynihan and Paudie Clifford. Those three are the workers, the runners, the providers, the heartbeat, the energy, the guys who will force the turnovers. The other three are the finishers.

Why are Kerry playing with three attacking forwards and three defensive forwards? Because Kerry must win. In the same way Dublin must win. The only difference between them and every other team in the country is that Dublin and Kerry are lucky enough to have elite and exceptional forwards.

I often think some commentators watch games with preconceived notions. If Tyrone get in a defensive shape, immediately the commentator will quickly let us know how many players they are getting back. There is this kind of generic narrative around northern teams in particular, when in reality all sides are doing this. And the reality is it will be a big part of Sunday’s final too.

There is a collapse of the ivory towers here.

Playing in such a manner wouldn’t have been contemplated by Dublin 15 years ago. And when Jack O’Connor spoke about us after 2012, he mentioned how he would have got “bata agus bóthar” if he had played how Donegal did. Well, they are doing something similar now in every game.

Padraic Joyce took over Galway and within 12 months his approach had changed, while I noticed Colm O’Rourke was very pleased after winning the Tailteann Cup last week. It’s one thing having a very strong philosophical belief system, which Colm had, because he would have sat and talked from that ivory tower, but it’s a very different reality when you are on the sideline and need to win.

[ Darragh Ó Sé: With 10 minutes to go I couldn’t see how Kerry were going to win ]

If the opposition are doing X, Y and Z you can’t allow them to have that advantage over you. When other teams started to think about the game differently, the top counties reclaimed that initiative by embedding those strategies to their own game plan. It has been interesting to watch how the language has changed when talking about the top teams getting players back, where once it would have been ‘very defensive’, now it is often viewed as brilliant defence.

The top counties understand the game has changed and they are not prepared to get left behind. So, for all the palaver and talk of the historic nature of this fixture, there must be a reality check here as well. Both teams play modern football.

Will we get the open, traditional, free-flowing game that Jack speaks about? I don’t know. Will it be a shoot-out? I think it’s more likely pragmatism will win out.

In order to triumph in big games you need a very good defensive performance and a very good attacking performance.

The number one commodity in Gaelic football now is turnovers, because that gives you the chance to create transitional moments and get at the opposition. Turnovers are a result of defensive intensity. Second is the kick-out, that’s the other place where the transitional moments begin.

Will both teams be positive in that regard on Sunday? They weren’t in the semi-finals. Kerry gave Derry far too much respect, they didn’t push up, they were afraid of the ball over the top.

Will both teams look to shut each other down on kick-outs and take the approach of giving nothing easy to the opposition? In my opinion that strategy over all else would make the game more open and unpredictable.

Thankfully, we don’t have to wait too long to get the answers to these questions. The mind-games are nearly over and the real game is about to begin. Here’s hoping it lives up to the hype.