African ingenuity for German precision

World Cup 2010: Joe Humphreys in Johannesburg on why South Africa 2010 will certainly be eventful

For one group of spectators in Berlin's Olympiastadion last Sunday, the nerves began to set in only after the final whistle blew. The South African delegation, whose job it is to organise the 2010 World Cup, listened all evening to glowing praise for German efficiency and competence.

The question hung in the air like a hangman's noose: How do you follow that? It would be a tough task for any country but it is all the tougher for a nation still straddling both First and Third Worlds.

The Rainbow Nation may be Africa's financial powerhouse but its economy is just one-fortieth the size of Germany's. Democracy came to the country little over a decade ago, and huge problems remain in the areas of poverty, crime, and HIV/Aids.

"The challenge is a big one," said Tumi Makgabo, spokeswoman for the local organising committee. "But I have faith in South Africans. I think when we really get to crunch-time South Africans will pull together, and we are beginning to see signs of that already."

A former newsreader and local celebrity, Makgabo was this summer lured away from a high-profile job with CNN to give South Africa 2010 a cheery, optimistic face. In the coming weeks, she says, the local committee will sit down with their German predecessors and "concretise the feedback" from what has been described as the most fan-friendly World Cup ever.

"We are looking to tap into that information from Germany so we can apply it in a South African context."

Her measured comments betray no sense of panic but tension lurks beneath the surface. On the eve of last weekend's final, she and other members of the committee found themselves having to deny a media report that the next tournament would be taken from them and handed to Australia because of seemingly inadequate preparations.

Fifa president Sepp Blatter also dismissed the report but not before marking South Africa's card. The country would need "special" assistance from outside organisations, like the European Union and Fifa, in order to pull the event off, he said.

So far there has been little progress on the ground. The bulldozers have only started moving in to the first of 10 locations earmarked for new or renovated stadiums. The construction of new headquarters for the South African Football Association (Safa) have been delayed by months - purportedly because of bad weather. And legislation due to have been passed last year to enable South Africa to conform to Fifa's requirements for the tournament still have to go through parliament - with various MPs complaining they should not simply "rubber-stamp" the football body's demands.

Tony Twine, senior economist with Johannesburg-based firm Econometrix, warns of a "very casual" attitude in South Africa towards the event.

"It's going to be like the Rugby World Cup, the Cricket World Cup and the World Summit at the same time. I'm not sure we're going to cope with it," he says.

Public transport tops his list of concerns. In this area, as in many others, South Africa 2010 will bear little resemblance to Germany 2006. "I was listening to a commentator in Germany saying that in two hours you could get from any venue to another venue by rail. In South Africa, you are going to be lucky to go by train between two venues in two days let alone two hours," he remarks.

The South African government is putting great store in a proposed 2.6-billion high-speed train between Johannesburg, the city's international airport, and the capital Pretoria. But says Twine, "South Africa is 1.22 million square kilometres. It's the size of Europe west of the Russian border. A 60-kilometre rail route is not going to make much impact."

As well as suffering from a lack of investment, South Africa's bus and rail networks are notoriously dangerous and poorly policed. Muggings are a daily occurrence, and during a recent industrial dispute at least 18 passengers were tossed off trains and killed, apparently by striking security guards.

The main alternative mode of transport is the minibus taxi - hazardous for other reasons, principally a tendency among drivers to travel at excessive speed and with scant regard for the rules of the road. Attempts to clean up the sector by, among other initiatives, scrapping unroadworthy vehicles ahead of the World Cup, have been strongly resisted by sections of the taxi industry.

Just this week it was revealed that the chief state official handling the proposed scrappage scheme had been subjected to death threats, illustrating the sort of pressures faced by certain planners in South Africa.

"The taxi industry is the most developed portion of the public transport infrastructure," notes Twine. "But it runs very much as it pleases and is scarcely the kind of public transport you would like backing up the World Cup."

South Africa's high crime rate may prove to be a particular deterrent to football fans. While few enough visitors to South Africa actually experience crime, the threat of it is universally unnerving, and those who do travel to the World Cup will be encouraged to take precautions. The result is that many visitors in 2010 may find themselves cocooned in hotels, or in privately secured compounds, venturing out only under tight controls - a sad fate for a World Cup seeking to break down cultural and racial barriers.

Accommodation itself is another big challenge, although Twine says he is "less concerned" about it than transport, reckoning that "about 18 months or a year ahead of time, people will wake up to the fact that there is a colossal opportunity in B&Bs".

Hotel prices are set to rocket, but he suggests this may be better for the country than an oversupply of rooms in the long run. "I am not sure we need, or can afford, another 50 five-star hotels. That would lead to more than a couple of white elephants," he says.

Although he strongly supports South Africa's hosting of the World Cup, seeing "significant opportunities" arising from the event, Twine has come under fire from some quarters for being so forthright. He is aware some people are questioning the logic of running the tournament in South Africa but, he says, "it's more dinner-table kind of conversation than on-the-record kind of conversation".

Part of the sensitivity around the issue stems from South Africa's divided past. In government circles, questioning the ability of the new, black-led South Africa to host a major event like the World Cup is not just unpatriotic but racially demeaning, or "Afro-pessimistic", to use president Thabo Mbeki's favourite term of abuse.

An added factor is South Africa's traditional sporting apartheid, something that has barely changed since the country's first fully democratic elections in 1994. Football is still predominantly played and supported by blacks just as rugby is almost universally played and supported by whites.

It was no surprise that the story about Australia being earmarked as a "back-up" host nation appeared in an Afrikaans newspaper. Nor was it any surprise that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) described the report as "politically motivated".

One of the few organisations to publicly question the country's state of readiness for 2010 has been the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) party - still seen as a predominantly white lobby even though many of its leading figures campaigned strongly against apartheid.

The newly elected mayor of Cape Town, Helen Zille, drew fierce criticism earlier this year when she questioned whether the city could afford its estimated 130-million contribution toward rebuilding a local stadium earmarked for the World Cup.

The controversy contributed to a smear campaign against her, with some ANC figures describing the mayor as "reactionary" and "racist".

Ms Zille quickly backed down from the stance, and is now seeking to complete the stadium works ahead of schedule.

Yet questions remain about spending priorities in a country where 22 million people - or roughlyhalf the population - live in poverty; where an estimated nine million still need a home; and where more than six million are HIV-positive - and are soon likely to be in need of treatment.

President Mbeki has played down concerns about costs, pointing to the World Cup's potential to create jobs and boost inward investment.

Along with many others, he also sees the tournament as a major opportunity to challenge negative images of Africa.

In fact, Mbeki has predicted not just the "most successful World Cup ever" but an African winner of the tournament.

Not everyone shares his optimism, but only a fool would write off South Africa's chances of competently hosting the event. After all, this is a country that has overcome huge odds in the past. It is a country that, against all logic, stepped back from the brink of civil war and inspired the world by conquering hate with hope.

"South Africans are a resourceful bunch," Twine adds. "Not all the answers are readily apparent at the moment but we will get there one way or another."

The lesson for anyone packing their bags for 2010 is to forget what has gone before. The trains that run may not run on time. Instead of German precision there will be African ingenuity. Expect less organisation but more spontaneity.

Dare one say it, South Africa 2010 could be an eventful and sometimes scary ride - but perhaps all the more special because of it.